Flowers For Xmas

Phantom Alert For Your GPS In Canada and USA

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Monday, December 31, 2007

Pescods chats up PDP + CDH again



Institutions NOW own 25.18% of the stock!

Petrolifera Petroleum Ltd PDP.TO (TSX)

12,621,295 institutional shares on 12/19/2007 PDP $9.14 # of Holders: 26 % Shares Owned: 25.18%
7,775,825 institutional shares on 12/01/2007 PDP $10.40 # of Holders: 24 % Shares Owned: 15.52%
7,775,913 institutional shares on 11/29/2007 PDP $10.35 # of Holders: 24 % Shares Owned: 15.52%
7,775,913 institutional shares on 11/28/2007 PDP $10.59 # of Holders: 24 % Shares Owned: 15.52%
7,775,913 institutional shares on 11/26/2007 PDP $10.23 # of Holders: 24 % Shares Owned: 15.52% PV38,055 (20%)
7,669,913 institutional shares on 11/22/2007 PDP $10.47 # of Holders: 24 % Shares Owned: 15.30% PV38,055 (20%)
7,669,913 institutional shares on 11/03/2007 PDP $10.60 # of Holders: 24 % Shares Owned: 15.30%
7,669,913 institutional shares on 11/13/2007 PDP $13.70 # of Holders: 24 % Shares Owned: 15.31%
7,669,913 institutional shares on 11/03/2007 PDP $17.10 # of Holders: 24 % Shares Owned: 15.31%


Click Here For The Institutional Holdings

Dundee Corporation Acquires Further Interest in Breakwater Resources Ltd.

Dundee Corporation Acquires Further Interest in Breakwater Resources Ltd.

ccnm



TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Dec. 31, 2007) - Dundee Corporation (TSX:DC.A)(TSX:DC.PR.A) announced today that it has indirectly acquired through a wholly owned subsidiary 6,122,449 flow through common shares of Breakwater Resources Ltd. ("Breakwater") at $1.96 per share, in a private transaction, which represents an approximate 1.09% interest in Breakwater. Following this transaction, Dundee Corporation will own, directly and indirectly, an aggregate of 108,002,510 common shares, representing an approximate 25.37% interest in Breakwater.


The common shares of Breakwater were acquired for investment purposes and Dundee Corporation's position in Breakwater may be increased or decreased in the future as considered appropriate in light of investment criteria, market conditions and other factors and in accordance with the provisions of applicable securities legislation.


Breakwater is a mining, exploration and development company which produces and sells zinc, copper, lead and gold concentrates to customers around the world. It's concentrate production is derived from four mines located in Canada, Chile and Honduras.


Dundee Corporation is an asset management company dedicated to wealth management, real estate and resources. Its domestic wealth management activities are carried out through its controlled subsidiary, DundeeWealth Inc., a company with $60.2 billion in assets under management and administration. Dundee Corporation's real estate activities are conducted through its 77% owned subsidiary, Dundee Realty Corporation which manages $5 billion of Canadian commercial real estate, including a land and housing business in Canada and the United States. Resource activities are carried out through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Dundee Resources Limited.



FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

Dundee Corporation
Ned Goodman
President and Chief Executive Officer
(416) 365-5665

Breakwater Resources Ltd. Raises $12 Million for Exploration

ccnm



TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Dec. 31, 2007) - Breakwater Resources Ltd. (TSX:BWR) is pleased to announce that it has raised $12.0 million by issuing 6,122,449 flow-through common shares at a purchase price of $1.96 per common share. The shares were issued by way of a private placement to a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dundee Corporation and have a four month hold period. Dundee Corporation currently holds approximately 24% of the issued and outstanding shares of Breakwater.


The proceeds of the flow-through financing will be used for an exploration program in Quebec in 2008 which Breakwater has budgeted in excess of $13 million. Additional exploration expenditures may be incurred in Quebec depending on exploration success.



FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

Breakwater Resources Ltd.
Ann Wilkinson
Vice President, Investor Relations
(416) 363-4798 Ext. 277

A Happy New Year isn't likely for the economy

Markets anticipate a light trading day

RTGAM


With light action expected for North American stock markets in the last trading day of 2007, global indicators are mixed and the Canadian dollar remains above parity with the greenback.
The loonie opened at 101.96 cents (U.S.), down just three one-hundredths of a cent from Friday's close.

Wall Street futures suggest a modestly higher open as investors await a report on U.S. home sales and look to close a volatile year.
Light sweet crude oil rose 19 cents to US$96.19 per barrel in pre-market electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.57 per cent and France's CAC-40 fell 0.45 per cent.
On Friday, the Toronto stock market racked up a solid gain of more than 100 points, with almost all sectors positive in a broad-based advance led by financial and energy stocks. It was a different story in New York, where early strong gains disappeared after a grim report on the U.S. housing sector.

Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index closed up about 145 points to 13,821.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrials drifted about six points higher to 13,365. The Nasdaq composite index slipped two points to 2,674, while the S&P 500 index edged up two points to 1,478 as data showed that sales of new U.S. homes plunged last month to their lowest level in more than 12 years.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

CP PHOTO
Governor David Dodge leaves the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, in this October 2005 file photo.
December 30, 2007

In the New Year just ahead, our biggest challenge will be to clean up the financial mess from 2007, in the hope that 2009 will be better.

This means that 2008 won't be a fun year. Rather, it will be a year in which many people could lose their homes, while others lose their jobs and many businesses find they can't get the credit they need to survive and grow.

Canada is in a somewhat better position than the U.S., although the Bank of Canada has also had to play a supportive role in financial markets and special arrangements are having to be made to restructure $33 billion of asset-backed commercial paper in Canada.

Perhaps more importantly, Canada will feel the spillover impact of slow growth south of the border or across the Atlantic in Europe. This means our own economy will slow, with export sectors such as autos and softwood lumber especially vulnerable.

As Stephen King, the chief economist at HSBC puts it, "the excess liquidity of recent years has gone down the plughole. In its place is a credit squeeze," which indicates "a financial system in crisis."

This credit crunch – the most important economic development in 2007 – means that banks are hanging on to their cash and have become more cautious both in who they lend to and how much they want to lend.

This year, central banks like the Bank of Canada have been concerned primarily with injecting liquidity into the financial system in order to prevent a financial collapse. A liquidity crisis occurs when financial institutions cannot generate immediate cash to meet their obligations because the assets they hold cannot be quickly converted to cash.

To keep the system afloat, central banks have made more than $500 billion of cash available in loans to banks in Canada, the United States, Britain, the Eurozone and Switzerland while also cutting the interest rate they charge banks on what are supposed to be short-term loans. More financial support, and further interest rate cuts, may be needed in the coming year.

The Bank of Canada recently cut its overnight target rate from 4.50 per cent to 4.25, and some economists expect it to decline to 3.50 per cent by this time next year.

But while the focus this year has been on maintaining liquidity in the financial system, the challenge in 2008 will be all about solvency. Banks will be forced to revalue their outstanding loans and the extent to which they may need capital infusions to keep them alive. They may find that they have made billions of dollars in bad loans.

In fact, a number of large banks, including some in Canada, have already been forced to take major write-downs. But more are expected in the coming year. If the news is really bad, then governments may be forced to intervene in an even bigger way.

This revaluation has already forced some of the world's biggest banks to seek new capital from government-owned sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, Singapore and China. This trekking is probably far from over.

Middle Eastern and Asian governments, through these funds, will end up owning significant chunks of the world's top U.S., British and Swiss banks.

What makes all of this even scarier is that no one really understands how the New Year will unfold. One reason is that we don't know how much bad debt is hidden in the books of the banks. Another is that we don't know how quickly confidence and trust can be restored.

While we all wish one another Happy New Year, the reality is that 2008 is unlikely to be a happy year.


David Crane's column on Global Issues appears Sundays.

Subprime fiasco to dominate early 2008
TOM STATHIS/ASSOCIATED PRESS
A sign advertises a bank repossessed home for sale in San Clemente, Calif., Aug. 5 in continuing fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage crunch
We should learn in new year the extent of fallout from crisis
December 30, 2007

Business Reporter

The first few months of 2008 may bring some clarity on how much money will actually be lost to bad loans made to high-risk borrowers in the subprime mortgage debacle, economists and stock market watchers say.

Observers are asking, will the tally be as high as the $400 billion (U.S.) some predict, or will the actual damage come in at less than that.

Either way, the financial crisis is likely to rank as one of the biggest the U.S. has seen. On the other hand, escaping the worst-case scenario would be a boon to a U.S. economy teetering on the brink of recession.

An estimated $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages are outstanding. About one-tenth of those are now in foreclosure. Some are predicting that foreclosures will grow to a staggering $400 billion. But will those predictions come to pass?

"We've had some defaults up until this point, but the really heavy period for resets is really in the first quarter of next year," said Mark Chandler, senior fixed income analyst at RBC Capital.

Subprime borrowers, who have poor credit histories and don't qualify for the usual bank mortgages, were allowed to "self assess" their income and ability to pay back the loans. Such borrowers have since come to be known as ninjas – no income, no jobs or assets.

Subprime mortgages carry a higher interest rate – as high as 12 per cent. But the would-be U.S. home owners were offered teaser rates – or 2/28 mortgages, which offered a low introductory rate for two years, followed by a higher one for the remaining 28.

Many of those mortgages are due to reset with higher monthly payments in January and February.

But there's reason for optimism.

U.S. President George W. Bush has hammered out a relief plan that will freeze interest rates for some home owners, keeping their monthly payments manageable and helping them hang on to their homes.

"The actual realization of the performance of those loans and those mortgages is the next real hurdle," Chandler said. "The rates could be frozen and there may be less in the way of foreclosures and defaults than people think."

Given the risk of huge write-offs and foreclosures, banks have become skittish about lending to consumers, and to each other, but central banks in many Western nations, including Canada, have stepped in with emergency funds meant to keep the cash flowing.

Banks and other financial institutions, those that made subprime loans directly as well as those that invested in securities that used subprime loans as collateral, are scrambling to give themselves a cushion. They're taking huge writedowns, trying to remove billions of dollars of suspect assets from their books with the stroke of a pen, and a flurry of headlines.

Analysts said last week that Citigroup may have to write off $18.7 billion in the fourth quarter, up sharply from the $8 billion to $11 billion initially estimated.

CIBC said earlier this month its profits may take a $1 billion hit because of its investment in a U.S. company with subprime real estate exposure. That's on top of a $9.8 billion writedown already taken.

The grim accounting has some economists asking whether markets are now overestimating the damage after months of being exposed to bad news.

"It's possible the market is overestimating, as it usually does. Most of the bad news may be already discounted – and that may be the good news," said Benjamin Tal, senior economist with CIBC World Markets.

On the economic side, the picture is bleak, with many signs pointing to slowdown. In the past 12 months, sales of new homes across the United States have plunged by 34 per cent – the biggest year-over-year slide since early 1991.

And the latest economic figures show that orders for durable goods rose only slightly in November as businesses received fewer orders for machinery, computers and communications equipment.

Maurice Levi, finance professor at the University of British Columbia, is worried about the impact on consumer spending.

He says he's more concerned about the people who just barely manage to hang on to their homes. "If it were me, I wouldn't want to throw in the towel. I would find other ways to try to make those payments, not change the cars, not take a vacation. Even the others who aren't in such critical condition might be spending less. This might bring a very slow economy."

The problem the central banks face is that if they don't inject enough liquidity into the market, the country may slip into recession. If they overdo it, it creates an excess supply of money – inflation.

"Getting it right is unbelievably difficult. This is not something that is a repeated event from many times before where you've had an opportunity to learn. We've never had subprime problems before," Levi said.

Some suggest the government's intervention will only prolong the trouble. After all, the West spent the 1990s hectoring Japan to just own up to its bad loans, suffer the economic consequences – unemployment, bankruptcies – and move on. "It's always easier to tell other people to take harsh medicine," said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns.

"I think the best thing for policy makers is try to cushion the blow but not distort the market. Let the real value of credit and homes come through and then deal with the aftermath. But that's a lot easier said than done."

Fearless forecasts for 2008

Day in history

Born this date in history, this Welsh actor is best-known for his character Hannibal Lecter in Silence of the Lambs.

(Answer, reverse:

Sinkpoh Ynohtna.) =Anthony Hopkins

December 31, 2007

Caveat emptor: "Avoid making predictions – especially about the future."

–Sam Goldwyn

1. The Summer Olympics and spectacular new Beijing architecture erases the tainted-import stories of 2007.

2. Dynamic French president Nicolas Sarkozy emerges as the leading voice for Europe, abetted by British PM Gordon Brown, less of a Europhile than his predecessor.

3. The recent addition to Europe's passport-free Schengen zone of nine members, bringing the total to 24 countries with 400 million people, prods a 2008 expansion to include Switzerland, one of the world's most isolationist nations. This increases pressure on Britain to join on economic grounds of lower transport costs, and on Russia not to thwart Ukraine, Romania and other former Soviet satellite states from membership in an economic power bloc already eclipsing the U.S.

4. Afghanistan and Pakistan's western border region finally become the central front in the struggle against terrorism by Islamic extremists, as they should have been from the start. The pro-U.S. Sarkozy sends additional troops which, in contrast with the current French concentration in relatively stable Kabul, are deployed in the more dangerous east and south, bolstering Canadian and British forces in Kandahar and Hellmand provinces. Britain increases its troops in the southwest, and Australia joins the cause. The U.S. steps up its redeployment of forces from Iraq to Afghanistan.

5. In part to enhance his party's electoral prospects in Quebec, Stephen Harper unveils a revamped reconstruction and humanitarian-relief program for Afghanistan.

6. In referenda, Colombia and ethnically divided Belgium narrowly vote against national breakups. Kosovo and Chechnya continue to lack sufficient outside support to separate from Serbia and Russia, respectively, although Kosovo unilaterally declares its independence.

7. Newly elected Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, 42, is predecessor Vladimir Putin's puppet, as expected, but the Deep Purple music fan starts calling his own shots by year-end.

8. Kevin Rudd, new Australian PM after defeating John Howard last year, rejects Australia's George W. Bush-granted status as America's local "sheriff." The Aussies continue their decades-old humanitarian and conflict-resolution work in the Solomons and elsewhere in the region but on their own terms.

9. Stephen Harper forms a second minority government in a fall election. Stephane Dion retires from the Liberal leadership after a miserable Grit showing.

10. In narrow victory over John McCain, Hillary Rodham Clinton is elected 44th U.S. president.

11. Barack Obama accepts president-elect Clinton's offer to nominate him U.S. secretary of state.

12. Food is the new oil. Biofuel and developing-world demand will keep soaring prices for wheat, corn and other agricultural commodities high. Investors like fertilizer giant Potash Corp., grain handlers Agrium and Viterra (the former Saskatchewan Wheat Pool), and farm-equipment makers Deere, Caterpillar and Case New Holland.

13. Nuke stocks glow. North America is slowly shedding its wariness of nuclear power, also poised for big gains in Europe and Asia. Investors go for uranium producers including Canada's Cameco, and turbine makers GE and France's Alstom.

14. Safer than sorry stocks are in favour amid continuing upheaval in capital and equity markets. Sound "buy and forget" stocks include GE, Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, Shoppers Drug Mart, United Technologies (Otis, Carrier, Pratt & Whitney) and reasonably priced utilities.

15. GM emerges as an unlikely turnaround play, as benefits begin to kick in from production cuts, reduced healthcare burden and more vehicles with showroom appeal.

16. With a massive oil discovery off its Atlantic coast this summer, Brazil is poised to attain the status of an OPEC producer, and may well join OPEC by 2010.

17. Rupert Murdoch, whose long ownership tenure at the Times of London has not restored the Times' prestige, surprises fretful journos by making only cosmetic changes to his newly acquired Wall Street Journal.

18. Ottawa raises no objections to takeover bids for Canadian-owned oilpatch giants Suncor Energy Inc. and EnCana Corp. by consortia formed among Britain's BP PLC, Anglo-Dutch producer Royal Dutch/Shell Group PLC, France's Total SA, Italy's ENI SpA and Spain's Repsol YPF.

19. A troubled Palm Inc., pioneer in PDAs and once a potentially formidable rival to Ontario-based BlackBerry maker Research in Motion Ltd., puts itself on auction block.

20. Hapless Nortel, having this year abandoned its third-generation wireless (3G) business – once a cornerstone of future growth prospects – talks merger with Cisco, the healthiest survivor of the telecom crash of 2000-02.

21. Hapless Motorola, after this year sacking its second CEO in three years, talks merger with a Nokia seeking a stronger foothold in North America.

22. Hapless French telecom giant Alcatel-Lucent wearies of CEO Patricia Russo's failure to deliver on turnaround plans; opts this time for a CEO fluent in French.

23. Amid continuing distribution woes at partner Loblaw Cos. that keep its Joe Fresh apparel boutiques out of stock, design maven Joe Mimran begins devoting most of his time to his other businesses.

24. Auto-parts investors shift into Linamar and Martinrea, two straightforward companies with appealing growth potential, and out of Magna International Inc., soon to be controlled by a convoluted partnership between founder Frank Stronach and Russian oligarch Oleg Derapaska, overly dependent on sales to Detroit's ailing Big Three, and a backdoor financier of a Stronach racetrack enterprise that seems fated never to succeed.

25. Lingerie merchant La Senza, now owned by the parent of Victoria's Secret, begins rebranding itself under the better-known VS banner, despite protestations to the contrary by La Senza CEO Irv Teitelbaum at the time of company's 2007 sale.

26. Quebecor Inc. spins off basket case Quebecor World, briefly the world's largest printer, but now close to unsalvageable after acquisition-related culture clashes, price wars and failure to keep costs down in a sector with notoriously thin margins.

27. In a bid for critical mass, Royal Bank of Canada explores merging its southeastern U.S. retail banking franchise with Atlanta-based SunTrust Banks, the dominant regional player, in exchange for a controlling equity stake in the combined firm.

28. The troika spearheading the Loblaw Cos. turnaround bid, including Galen Weston Jr., will show substantial progress in solving the firm's distribution crisis or will be replaced by year end with a distribution expert from logistics-savvy Wal-Mart or Target.

29. London widens its lead over New York as the world's financial capital as subprime-mortgage defaults and soured loans to precariously financed private-equity buyouts further weaken the balance sheets of America's largest banks and brokers.

30. Oscar loves Atonement.


Quotable tycoon

"The difference between a skinflint banker and a reckless banker is a recession."

–Walter Wriston, CEO of Citibank (now Citigroup Inc.) in the 1980s.

Saturday, December 29, 2007

Insider Trading PDP+BWR



Friday, December 28, 2007

Markets Moving Us Back Up



Thursday, December 27, 2007

For the Lions Among Us- Pescods Picks


Stochastics Top Ten List

Certainly I'm still a shareholder in BWR But Here's The Best Top Ten For The Next 3 Years IMHO :-)

Con artists turn shell companies into cash

Con artists turn shell companies into cash

Print this article
JANET McFARLAND
Thursday, December 27, 2007

Oklahoma lawyer John Heskett logged onto his computer one day in late June, 2005, to check out an inactive shell company owned by his clients who were considering using it in a business deal.

What he saw made no sense.

"I saw this wild trading going on, and I couldn't imagine why," he said. "I was in total disbelief. I knew there could not be that many shares in the market, not even close, not even 1/100th of those shares in the market ... I had to pinch myself and say, 'Am I crazy?' " After some online searching and a few phone calls to the company's transfer agent, Mr. Heskett contacted the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to report a bizarre crime: Someone, he said, had stolen his client's public company.

Sixteen months later, the SEC and the British Columbia Securities Commission announced they had reached settlements with two Canadian men who admitted to illegally taking control of Greyfield Capital Ltd. and arranging to have 600 million new shares issued using the company's ticker symbol.

Surprisingly, the unusual case is not the only one of its kind in Canada or the United States. Regulators say corporate identity theft has become another twist in the world of securities fraud, where criminals seem to find endlessly creative ways to dupe investors.

Martin Eady, director of corporate finance at the British Columbia Securities Commission, said criminals have traditionally started their own shell companies to conduct frauds. But, he said, it's far cheaper to steal a dormant shell company.

"It typically costs about $100,000 to start one of those companies," he said.

When buying a dormant shell, he added, investors want a "clean" shell with no liabilities and clear titles and assets. "So, it can be costly to rehabilitate an old shell company," he said.

While there are obvious dangers in assuming the identity of an inactive company - that the real owners will notice and complain - criminals reduce the risk by targeting virtually unknown companies that trade on the U.S. over-the-counter market and have been dormant for years, or are in default in their filings.

Earlier this year, the Ontario Securities Commission halted trading in 10 companies' shares while investigating an alleged scheme in which the companies assumed the identities of 10 dormant firms.

The dormant companies had previously traded on the U.S. over-the-counter market.

The OSC temporary order also alleged that Select American Transfer Co., acting as the transfer agent for the companies, may have participated in the scheme by issuing false share certificates.

But identity theft frauds can occur without the transfer agent knowing what's really going on.

In the Greyfield Capital case, Mervin Fiessel and Robert Doherty, both of Kamloops, B.C., admitted they forged the signature of a former company director on a letter to Greyfield's transfer agent announcing a change of directors. They also forged documents to get the transfer agent to issue new shares and allow them to trade publicly without restrictions.

The men admitted they issued a flurry of press releases, and also talked up the company on Internet bulletin boards for penny stock investors, claiming to be running a Kamloops-based car dealership. They touted it as the largest dealership in Western Canada, even though it was not even the largest dealership in Kamloops.

"We actually went to look at their operations," Mr. Eady says. "It was rather comical. Their news releases claimed [it] to be a very major going concern, and we turned up at the address and it was simply a good old-fashioned used car lot."

The scheme ended when the SEC launched its investigation following Mr. Heskett's phone call in July, 2005. The two men have been banned from trading securities in British Columbia, except in limited circumstances, and were required to make payments totalling about $325,000.

Mr. Heskett, meanwhile, says his clients were also victims, even though they did not buy the company's fake shares. Their shell company was essentially ruined for future use because so many fraudulent shares remain outstanding. His clients have abandoned plans to use the company.

"These guys trashed the shell," he said.

OSC enforcement director Mike Watson said that in some cases, criminals seem to steal shell companies to quickly flip them to other buyers, who think they are purchasing a legitimate public company.

More often, he said, they use them to conduct a pump-and-dump fraud. That means the crooks artificially inflate the value of the shares, sell their holdings at a significant profit, then disappear.

Mr. Watson said one difference with frauds conducted using a stolen company is the criminals typically arrange to get many millions of shares issued to themselves, and also arrange to have the shares issued without typical trading restrictions that accompany private placements, allowing them to trade the shares immediately.

"When it collapses, they simply pull another [shell] company off the shelf and start over again," he said.

He said brokerage firms can also become fraud victims. They are required to provide shares to complete trades, and if the shares prove fraudulent, the firms can be forced to compensate the buyer.

To target a brokerage firm, criminals set up a scheme to "sell" shares to accomplices who pose as ordinary investors. The so-called victims then pretend to "uncover" that the shares are fraudulent and insist the transaction be completed by the unsuspecting brokerage firm.

"The broker finds himself in a position where if they can't come up with the shares, they perhaps have to make cash compensation," Mr. Watson said. "What you've done is taken shares you've printed off your printer and sold them to a broker for $5-million."

Earlier this year, British Columbia regulators announced a multipronged plan to reduce the fraudulent abuse of corporate shell companies.

The new rules, which have been published for comment, would require companies trading on the pink sheets over-the-counter market to file financial statements, press releases and other disclosure documents just like other public companies trading on larger exchanges.

The BCSC will also require over-the-counter issuers to provide shareholder lists and other information. The commission has also proposed new resale restrictions on people who buy shares of an over-the-counter company before it goes public.

Mr. Eady said the new rules have been proposed because British Columbia has a disproportionate amount of fraud involving over-the-counter shares compared to other jurisdictions.

"I know the TSX Venture [Exchange] has been quite a lot more choosy about who they will list compared to the days of the old Vancouver Stock Exchange," Mr. Eady said. "But Vancouver is still a nice place to live, and we still have people well experienced in that market, so they've simply found another home."

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Oil jumps on Bhutto assassination

Oil jumps on Bhutto assassination

Print this article
JOHN WILEN
Thursday, December 27, 2007

NEW YORK — Oil prices rose Thursday after the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto raised concerns about stability in the Middle East.

Ms. Bhutto died in a suicide attack that also killed at least 20 others at a campaign rally, aides said.

“It's definitely instability,” said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Fla. “Everybody wants calm when they're talking about pricing energy (futures).”

Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 47 cents (U.S.) to $96.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Also supporting oil prices Thursday were expectations that domestic crude supplies fell last week. In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration is expected to show that oil supplies fell by 1.3 million barrels last week, according to the average forecast of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.

Analysts believe crude supplies fell because of foggy weather that at times prevented oil tankers from entering the Houston Ship Channel and delivering their cargoes.

The EIA report is also expected to show that distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell by 800,000 barrels, while gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.4 million barrels. Refinery use likely grew by 0.6 percentage point to 88.4 per cent of capacity, analysts predict.

Other energy futures were mixed Thursday. Heating oil futures rose 1.9 cents to $2.6602 a gallon while gasoline futures rose 1.39 cents to $2.4665 a gallon. Natural gas futures fell 10.2 cents to $6.944 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, February Brent crude futures rose 28 cents to $94.22 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Single-family housing market `remains grim,' index official observes

Leo (July 23 — Aug. 22)

Some days the wind blows in the right direction at just the right speed. Those good days will soon return.



U.S. home prices post their biggest drop ever
Single-family housing market `remains grim,' index official observes
December 27, 2007

NEW YORK–U.S. home prices fell in October for the 10th consecutive month, this time posting the biggest drop ever, according to a key index.

The record 6.7 per cent slide in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index also marked the 23rd consecutive month that prices either fell or grew more slowly than the month before.

"No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim,'' Robert Shiller, who helped create the index, said yesterday.

The October decline surpassed the previous record of 6.3 per cent in April 1991. The index tracks prices of existing single-family homes in 10 metropolitan areas.

The index is considered a strong measure of home prices because it examines price changes on the same property over time, instead of calculating a median price of homes sold during the month.

Home prices could fall another 10 per cent over the next 12 to 18 months before bottoming out, said Patrick Newport, an economist with financial consultancy Global Insight.

Newport said four of the largest groups currently trying to sell homes – banks holding foreclosed properties, home builders, speculators and unemployed consumers – are typically flexible about lowering house prices.

Sales of homes will probably start to rebound late in 2008, with price appreciation to follow, Newport said.

A second, broader Case-Shiller index, which measures 20 metropolitan areas, fell 6.1 per cent in October.

Among the 20 areas used in the broader index, 11 posted record year over year declines and all 20 declined in October compared with September.

Leading the index lower was Miami, where prices fell 12.4 per cent in October compared with the same month last year. Tampa was the next-worst-performing city with a year over year loss of 11.8 per cent.

Besides those two cities, Detroit, Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego also posted double-digit declines.

Atlanta and Dallas, where prices had previously risen, fell a little in October at 0.7 per cent and 0.1 per cent respectively.

Only three areas – Charlotte, N.C.; Portland, Ore.; and Seattle – posted year over year appreciation in October. Charlotte posted the largest gain at 4.3 per cent.

Among the three, only Charlotte is likely to avoid declining house prices within the coming few months, Newport said. The area has not had the periods of rapid appreciation other markets have experienced.

Kevin Johnson, co-founder of Homes of the South Inc. in Charlotte, agreed.

"We never jumped very high like other areas," Johnson said, so the city won't ``have a hard fall ... "

Bob Morgan, president of the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, said the area's strong economy is also playing a role in supporting prices. Preliminary numbers show more than 14,000 jobs were created in the Charlotte area in 2007, he said, up from more than 12,000 in 2006.

The job growth is coming from a "pretty healthy" variety of sectors, including the financial industry, Morgan said. Charlotte is home to two of the country's four largest banks, Bank of America Corp. and Wachovia Corp.

Carole Brake, sales manager at Bissell Hayes Realtors SouthPark Office in Charlotte, said prices are still up despite an increase in inventory.

"Sellers are not in a mode to reduce their prices. They want a fair market price for their home," Brake said.


Associated Press

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Anatomy of a credit crunch

SHUTTERSTOCK PHOTO ILLUSTRATION

A worldwide credit crunch tied to U.S. “subprime” mortgages began in August.

The U.S. credit crunch timeline

Year-end 2006: The value of all U.S. homes, excluding rentals, peaks at 153 per cent of GDP, the highest level in at least six decades.

June 22, 2007: New York brokerage Bear Stearns Cos. spooks Wall Street in saying it will bail out one of its hedge funds due to subprime-mortgage losses. On July 18, the firm reports that its two hedge funds that invested heavily in subprimes are essentially worthless, having lost more than 90 per cent of their value, or $1.4 billion (U.S.)

Aug. 9: French bank BNP Paribas SA suspends three of its funds with U.S. subprime exposure.

Aug. 16: Troubled Countrywide Financial Corp., the U.S. No. 1 mortgage lender, draws down $11.5 billion from its credit lines to stave off insolvency.

Aug. 22: Reports show U.S. home foreclosures were up 93 per cent in July 2007 over July 2006. There were 179,599 foreclosure filings in July, up from 92,845 the previous year.

September: The Bank of England injects $55 billion into Northern Rock PLC to rescue Britain's No. 5 mortgage lender. A run on the firm by depositors is the first in memory.

Sept. 30: U.S. house prices begin to drop, a trend certain to continue as unsold homes proliferate and foreclosure rates rise.

Oct. 25: Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. records an $8.5 billion writedown, mostly on consumer loans including subprime mortgages. CEO Stanley O'Neal is fired days later.

Nov. 5: Citigroup Inc. says subprime mortgages and related securities lost as much as $11 billion of their value in the previous month. CEO Charles Prince is forced out.

Dec. 7: CIBC discloses a whopping $9.8 billion exposure to the U.S. subprime market.

Dec. 12: Five central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, agree to inject $40 billion into the global financial system, with an additional $24 billion set aside for European buyers of scarce U.S. dollars.

Who would have thought questionable loans to Sacramento trailer-home buyers could someday trigger a global credit crisis
December 16, 2007

Business Columnist

The cavalry rode to the rescue of the global financial system last week. We hope this unprecedented bailout works, because nothing else has since a worldwide credit crunch tied to U.S. "subprime" mortgages began in August.

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has cut its key federal funds rate three straight times, or a full percentage point. Henry Paulson, the U.S. treasury secretary, is trying to cobble together a superfund to quarantine the big banks' soured loans, and last week unveiled a bailout plan for homeowners who can't make their mortgage payments. Retiring Bank of Canada governor David Dodge has been trying to repair a troubled financial sector – non-bank asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) in a deal Canadian banks completed Friday. And so-called "sovereign funds," owned by state governments hailing from Dubai and Singapore, have injected capital into ailing Citigroup Inc. and Swiss banking giant UBS AG.

That's not sound and fury signifying nothing, but it might as well be. Restorative efforts to date have failed to arrest the low-grade panic on Wall Street and in other global financial centres, where expectations of further massive losses run high. Banks, brokerages and other major financial institutions bracing for an estimated $400 billion (U.S.) in subprime mortgage losses are so gun-shy they've even stopped lending to each other, and are turning away credit-worthy prospective consumer and commercial borrowers in order to shore up their balance sheets. A sustained credit freeze of this magnitude could steer the U.S. and Canada into a recession, perhaps a severe one, by the first half of next year if the financiers' confidence in their own system isn't promptly restored. Apart from the financial wreckage, an estimated 2 million Americans risk losing their homes in the next year.

"What we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern-day banking system," Bill Gross, managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC (Pimco), writes in his latest client note. Pimco manages close to $1 trillion, and the investing acumen of Gross rivals that of Warren Buffett. His latest commentary only added to fears on Wall Street that the worst of the bad-loan reporting isn't over, even after staggering writedowns declared by blue-chip financial houses including UBS, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. Last week, Bank of America Corp. and Wachovia Corp., the No. 5 U.S. bank, declared or warned of large subprime-related losses. Canadian banks have so far taken a $1.3 billion hit.

"Credit contraction, with its inevitable companion of asset destruction," Gross writes, "is spreading with the speed of an infectious disease."

To halt the contagion, five central banks – the U.S. Fed, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank – joined Wednesday to inject as much as $64 billion of liquidity into the world financial system.

The funds will be distributed in four auctions, beginning tomorrow and stretching into January. Twenty-four billion dollars of the amount represents greenbacks the Fed is making available to the ECB and the Swiss National Bank for European clients who've coped most of this year with a scarcity of U.S. dollars. It's the biggest central-bank intervention in the global system since the aftermath of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and is described by one U.S. analyst as "revolutionary" for the impressive degree of co-operation among the central banks.

"As always with central banking, the most important message is in the signal that central banks are sending," Bruce Kasman, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. wrote in his blog Wednesday. "They are telling us they are now prepared to take an aggressive and co-ordinated approach to dealing with this issue."

To get the banks lending again, the U.S. Fed-led initiative will lend money to banks at discount rates and, in an unorthodox move, accept as collateral a wide range of assets including securities not backed by government entities. "More than lowering rates in the economy, just having this banking system liquefied will make a huge difference," Wachovia CEO Ken Thompson said in a Wednesday conference. Financiers "are still fearful of each other, and everybody is worried about counter-party risk and so [banks] are hoarding their balance sheets, and this will help that."

Financiers have had ample grounds for fear. Write-down announcements by the world's biggest financial institutions have been a bad penny for months. UBS has alarmed the market more than once with fresh revelations of soured mortgage-related loans on its books. Banks thought to be free of the contagion, including London-based giant HSBC Holding PLC, have dismayed rivals with news of subprime-infected balance sheets. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce stunned Bay Street on Dec. 7 by revealing its $9.8 billion exposure to the U.S. subprime market.

The deep-seated problem is that no one knows exactly where the debt is, in what amount, and in what state of repair. Since the U.S. housing bubble began to inflate in 2004, something like $2 trillion worth of mortgages have been granted, in many cases to "ninjas" (no income, no job, no assets). In the case of low-income borrowers with spotty credit histories, mortgages were sold at "teaser" rates as low as 7 per cent that would eventually "reset" at as much as 13 per cent.

Foreclosures are now mounting, as the dubious mortgages begin to reset. The toxic loans, which should have been labeled "junk mortgages" yet inexplicably bore Triple-A ratings from credulous credit-rating agencies, were bundled into packages of $100 million or more and labeled ABCP and "collateralized debt obligations" (CBOs). They were then swapped and re-swapped among global banks, brokerages, hedge funds and other investors who each garnered a fee as the hot potatoes made their way around the globe.

The outcome has been one of the biggest fiascos in the financial system in modern times. "What is happening in credit markets today is a huge blow to the credibility of the Anglo-Saxon model of transactions-oriented financial capitalism," veteran money-market observer Martin Wolf wrote last week in the U.K. Financial Times. "A mixture of crony capitalism and gross incompetence has been on display in the core financial markets of New York and London."

The system itself appears long ago to have grasped the enormity of its troubles, and thus failed to react positively to the remedial actions preceding last week's dramatic central-banks bailout scheme. As recently as the day it was announced, Wall Street initially jumped for joy, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 270 points, before coming to its senses and closing the day up just 41 points, or 0.3 per cent.

The jolt has had some salutary effects, in the realm of central-bank practices. The stigma of the Fed's "discount window" has kept banks from borrowing there for fear of appearing desperate. Under last week's bailout scheme, banks are encouraged to borrow at discount rates knowing their identities won't be revealed.

Regional lenders far smaller than the New York-based "money-centre" banks will be urged to deal directly with the Fed for the first time, bypassing intermediaries. A humbled Fed is adopting tools used by the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia, which include lending to a much wider variety of institutions and accepting a more diverse range of collateral.

Both the Fed and the Bank of Canada have hinted strongly that assistance will continue beyond January if necessary. That's not enough to satisfy Gross, who says a federal funds rate cut to 3 per cent from the current 4.25 per cent is required to head off a recession. And when the system is able finally to exhale, there will be a need to debate regulatory and other reforms – including more transparency about the quality of assets on bankers' books.

The current calamity arises from a systemic failure over, of all things, home mortgages – one of the most dead-simple financial transactions in existence. When the housing bubble was gaining altitude, lenders, regulators, debt-rating agencies, buyers of bundled mortgages and central bankers couldn't imagine that questionable loans to Sacramento trailer-home buyers could someday trigger a global credit crisis.

Even those relatively few optimists about last week's dramatic bailout efforts are counseling patience about recovering from a catastrophic blunder that has come close to crippling the global financial system.

"The big, big picture is that a bunch of people basically accepted much more debt than their balance sheets could afford," Jeff Bronchick, chief investment officer at Reed Conner Birdwell, a Los Angeles money management firm, told the Wall Street Journal last week.

"That has to be cured and it can only be cured with time."


Monday, December 24, 2007

ABCP pact sets stage for trading

Market signals mixed

RTGAM

Ahead of a shortened pre-Christmas trading session, global signals are mixed for North American stock markets while the Canadian dollar has climbed above $1.01 (U.S.).


The loonie opened at $1.0108, up about one-third of a U.S. cent from Friday's close.
Stock markets will close early Monday, at 1 p.m. ET.
U.S. futures suggested a mixed open after strong gains Friday. Light sweet crude oil fell 25 cents to $93.06 in pre-market electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Stock markets in Japan are closed for Christmas. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.44 per cent and France's CAC-40 rose 0.06 per cent.
On Sunday, a group of investors working to solve the problems of asset-backed commercial paper said an agreement in principle to rescue about $33-billion (Canadian) worth of short-term debt in Canada has been reached.
The committee said the deal covers 20 of 22 member trusts with investments that were devastated by the credit crunch that followed the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market.
On Friday, the Toronto stock market logged a solid triple-digit gain, ahead of the Christmas holiday week, as results from Research In Motion and higher gold prices overshadowed negative developments in the financial sector.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index moved up about 189 points to 13,596 in the last full-day trading session until Dec. 27.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average rose about 205 points to 13,450. The Nasdaq composite index was up 51 points to 2,691.99 while the S&P 500 index rose 24 points to 1,484.46. Canadian Press


Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail


ABCP pact sets stage for trading

Purdy Crawford's committee unveils agreement as impatient investors threaten lawsuits

FINANCIAL SERVICES REPORTER

An agreement reached yesterday to salvage the frozen $33-billion market for troubled commercial paper will give investors a chance to recoup much of their money after the debt begins trading this spring.

"I am confident that this plan will provide most holders of outstanding commercial paper with the opportunity to receive the full repayment of principal by holding restructured notes to maturity," stated Purdy Crawford, the lawyer who chairs the committee that worked for months on the restructuring agreement.

Some investors had been ready to launch lawsuits in a bid to recoup their money if a timely agreement hadn't been reached.

The plan unveiled yesterday divides the debt pool into three parts, in an effort to ensure that investors in each area can recoup the highest amount possible.

There's a $3-billion portion of traditional, securitized assets; a $26-billion portion of mixed synthetic and traditional assets; and then the $3-billion portion that's tied to the U.S. subprime market.

Traditional assets are those such as mortgages, while synthetics are complex instruments - such as collateralized debt obligations - that are put together using pools of traditional assets that are sliced and diced and divided up in different ways.

Corporations, organizations, government bodies and pension plans across Canada have found themselves stuck holding this paper since August.

That's when the market's fear of U.S. subprime mortgages caused investors to bail out of a slew of complex investment products, including third-party asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP). The market has a small exposure to subprime.

In a bid to buy some time to hammer out a solution, a group of financial institutions that were key players in the market banded together in August and put together a standstill agreement that effectively froze the sector.

Mr. Crawford was eventually put in charge of the committee that's been trying to reach a restructuring proposal. It missed its self-imposed deadline earlier this month, and had set a new deadline of Jan. 31. But Mr. Crawford wanted a deal by Christmas.

"Everybody worked very hard," he said in an interview yesterday. "Thank goodness for modern technology, you can communicate so quickly," he added, as the committee was dealing with people from London to New York. Mr. Crawford held some meetings in his Toronto law office, but much of the work was done remotely.

"This time it was the chairman's turn to play a bit of Santa," said Huston Loke, of credit-rating agency DBRS Ltd.

He added that "the deal was being negotiated in some of the most volatile conditions in the credit markets globally."

Mr. Crawford said that in some cases - mostly the subprime - investors might have to take losses, but it's too early to say by how much. It will depend on the market at the time that the restructuring's complete, he said. For the majority of ABCP, the agreement should give investors a reasonable expectation of receiving the full par value of the investment over time, he said.

All of the ABCP will be exchanged for longer-dated notes that will be more closely matched with the maturity of the underlying assets. Maturity for many of the new notes is expected to be seven years on average. The committee expects most of the new notes to receive investment grade ratings of triple-A.

Before the agreement could be implemented there will have to be approval from the holders of two-thirds of the value of each of the ABCP trusts, as well as certain approvals from government, regulators and the courts. The committee hopes the restructuring will be finished in March.

Mr. Crawford said that each of the big Canadian banks other than Toronto-Dominion Bank has indicated some interest in providing some type of credit facilities to support the restructuring. Negotiations with the banks are ongoing. And TD, not involved in this market, has not definitely said no, Mr. Crawford said.

As part of the deal, two big investors in the paper, the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and Groupe Desjardins - along with several other institutions - have agreed to commit an amount to fund margin calls. A margin facility of about $14-billion will be established, and certain players have agreed to "self-insurance" of almost $8-billion.

The Caisse issued a statement yesterday saying it was "very satisfied" with the agreement.

Aside from Skeena Capital Trust, which was already dealt with, yesterday's agreement does not cover Devonshire Trust, which is worth roughly $700-million. The committee is still working on alternatives for that trust.

"I cannot overstate the complexity of the restructuring, reflecting the value and complex nature of the underlying assets and the involvement of a number of parties with competing interests," Mr. Crawford said.

ABCP - A backgrounder

The freeze

Canada's $33-billion market for asset-backed commercial paper sold by non-bank dealers ground to a halt in August after Coventree Inc. and other trusts failed to renew maturing debt because investors were concerned about ties to high-risk U.S. mortgages. Banks refused to provide backup financing, freezing the market and putting funds at risk of collapsing, even though just 9 per cent of the assets were linked to subprime loans.

The jitters

Stock markets went on a roller-coaster ride in the summer and early fall as nervous investors began selling stocks to free up cash made scarce as banks ceased lending. And worries about who was holding bad U.S. home mortgages tainted even sound investments.

The Montreal meeting

A group of foreign banks, Canadian lenders and pension funds led by Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec negotiated the so-called Montreal Proposal on Aug. 16 and agreed to convert the short-term debt into longer-term notes with higher interest rates.

The new deal

Based on the advice of financial adviser JP Morgan Chase & Co., most of the restructured notes will receive a triple-A rating, according to the statement. The group didn't say how much investors will receive on the dollar, according to spokesman Mark Boutet.

Bloomberg News, staff

Saturday, December 22, 2007

And so this is Xmas and what have you done?




Friday, December 21, 2007

BWR $20 Million Dollar Partnership Announced After The Bell

Breakwater Enters Into Qualifying Environmental Trust (QET)

ccnm



TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Dec. 21, 2007) - Breakwater Resources Ltd. (TSX:BWR) (Breakwater) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a joint venture with the limited partners of Myra Falls Mine Limited Partnership (Partnership) whereby the Partnership is entitled to a revenue interest of production from the Myra Falls mine consisting of a 3% net smelter royalty. The Partnership has deposited $20 million with a trustee into a "qualifying environmental trust" (QET) as security for a portion of the reclamation obligations of NVI Mining Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Breakwater, which owns the Myra Falls mine.


The $20 million in the QET is in addition to approximately $13 million held in a safekeeping account and will fully fund the currently estimated physical reclamation program required at Myra Falls. Breakwater worked closely with the Government of British Columbia to establish the QET.


Breakwater has the right to purchase the interests of the limited and general partners of the Partnership for approximately $18 million (90.9% of the contribution to the QET) payable at the option of Breakwater in cash or common shares of Breakwater at the "current market price". This right is exercisable from January 16, 2008 to April 15, 2008. The current market price is defined as the weighted average of the trading price on the Toronto Stock Exchange of Breakwater's common shares for the most recent 20 trading days ending the day before the exercise of the right.


If Breakwater does not exercise its right, the partners of the Partnership have the right to require Breakwater to purchase the interests of the limited and general partners of the Partnership for an amount equal to the fair market value of the revenue interest as determined by appraisal. The purchase price is payable at the option of Breakwater in cash or common shares of Breakwater at the "current market price" on the day before the partners exercise their right. The partners may exercise their right from April 16, 2008 until May 15, 2008.


Subject to the approval of the applicable regulatory bodies, if, upon the exercise of rights by either Breakwater or the partners of the Partnership, Breakwater issues common shares to satisfy its obligations, the shares issued will not be freely tradeable until April 21, 2008.


Breakwater is a mining, exploration and development company which produces and sells zinc, copper, lead and gold concentrates to customers around the world. The Company's concentrate production is derived from four mines. Two of Breakwater's mines are located in Canada, one is located in Chile and one is located in Honduras.



FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

Breakwater Resources Ltd.
Dave Langille
Vice President, Finance and Chief Execut

Finally A Santa Claus Rally- Technicals Updated






Markets to drive off deals

Markets to drive off deals

RTGAM



Deals and talk of deals are helping power investor sentiment early Friday, along with knockout quarterly results from Research In Motion.

Merrill Lynch, still reeling from the biggest loss in its 93-year history, is in talks for a cash injection from Singapore's state investment firm, joining a list of other financial sector companies tapping international money to recover from writing down risky subprime mortgages.

RIM's results should drive the technology sector as Bear Stearns upgraded the stock to "outperform" from "peer perform," setting a price target estimate of between $150 (U.S.) and $170.

"Anxiety over economic concerns and potential slowdown in U.S. enterprise spending is overstated in view of the secular phenomenon of smart phones," the brokerage points out.
Merrill Lynch also bumped up its price estimate on RIM by 7 per cent to $150.
"Research In Motion's results show that quality companies can continue to deliver even in a toughening economic environment." Ed Wallace, who helps oversee global equities at London's Gartmore Investment Management, told Bloomberg.

And in the moribund M&A sector, Respironics won't get any sleep after Royal Philips Electronics agreed to buy the maker of medical devices to combat sleep disorders for $5.2-billion, reflecting a 24 per cent premium to Thursday's closing price.

"Companies with strong balance sheets and cash to spend are still willing to participate in mergers and acquisitions despite broader credit concerns," Mr. Wallace added.
At 7:30 a.m. EST, Dow Jones industrial futures are up 76 points, S&P 500 futures up 10 points and Nasdaq 100 futures up 17 points.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Thursday, December 20, 2007

BWR + BWR.wt Dec 1-Dec 20 2007 Buy+Sells



PDP Buy+Sells Dec 1-20 2007


Globe says PDP+ others hurt by tax-loss selling

Globe says PDP+ others hurt by tax-loss selling

2007-12-20 07:49 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail tries to identify stock that may jump in January in its Thursday, Dec. 20, edition. The Globe's Scott Adams writes in the Number Cruncher column that some stocks get beaten up in December because of tax-loss selling. Mr. Adams considered only companies that trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange with market capitalizations greater than $200-million. He looked for stocks and trusts that were down on the year more than 10 per cent. Mr. Adams said his aim was to pick companies that are overly beaten up by tax-loss selling and that can make a comeback in the new year. Natural resources stocks dominated his list. He says investors with a longer-term horizon and are bullish on commodities prices, should consider picking up some beaten-up stocks. Making it onto Mr. Adams's list are Crystallex International, Petrolifera, Wi-Lan, PineTree Capital, Akita Drilling and C.A. Bancorp.


And This

Globe says Imperial Metals, others seen as value plays

2007-12-19 08:52 ET - In the News

See In the News (C-III) Imperial Metals Corp (2)

The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, Dec. 19, edition that one way to find stocks that are overly beaten up is to look at moving averages. The Globe's Scott Adams writes in the Number Cruncher column that he has identified stocks trading the most below their moving averages. He explains that a moving average is the average price of the stock over a period of time, such as 50 or 200 days. When a stock is trading above a moving average, it can be a sign it is overbought and may pull back. Conversely, if a stock is trading below a moving average, it may be oversold and worthy of a closer look as a value play. Mr. Adams compiled a list of stocks trading significantly below their 50-day moving averages. He only considered companies trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange that had a market capitalization of more than $200-million. His recommended value plays are Skye Resources, Imperial Metals, Corel, Oncothyreon, True Energy and Petrolifera Petroleum.


Turnabout coming, Zinc producer says

Breakwater suffers 'vagaries of the marketplace'
Turnabout coming, Zinc producer says

Peter Koven, Financial Post
Published: Friday, November 23, 2007

George Pirie can only watch as investors push his stock lower and lower amid a crumbling zinc market. But he is confident the selling won't last.

He is chief executive of Breakwater Resources Ltd., a Toronto-based metal producer that has been hit as hard as almost anyone by the sinking zinc price which has plunged more than 20% in the past 30 days, and 50% this year. Breakwater shares closed at $1.65 yesterday, and are down by more than half since mid-October because of falling prices and operational problems.

"Because zinc is ubiquitous and used everywhere, it's a bit of the 'canary in the gold mine' type of vehicle," Mr. Pirie said in an interview. "It'll be the first to suffer the consequences of a nervous market."

Zinc prices are falling because the global supply picture is improving, with lots of projects coming online or ramping up production. While there are no consistent numbers available, institutions have forecast surpluses of hundreds of thousands of tons of refined zinc in the next three years. Increasing supply, along with general market turbulence, has pushed the zinc price down to US$1 a pound, after it hit highs above US$2 early this year.

Zinc industry executives see this as a temporary setback.

"We're going through a bit of a weak period here because there are overlays on oncoming production over the next year or two. But at the end of the day I think zinc prices will strengthen over the next three to four months," said Colin Benner, vice-chairman of Lundin Mining Corp. and former CEO of Breakwater.

The tricky thing about the zinc market, experts said, is it is extremely difficult to follow. While nickel and copper are produced by large companies that provide a lot of information, the zinc market has more smaller players like Breakwater. For largest players, zinc is essentially a byproduct. And the biggest producing country is China, which does not always provide the most reliable numbers.

With less public information available, zinc can be more susceptible to what Mr. Pirie calls "the vagaries of the marketplace. It lends itself to huge speculation with hedge funds. And they can take massive short positions and drive the price down where the fundamentals don't support it."

One reason he feels the market could quickly turn around is China. The government is talking about eliminating a 5% export rebate on certain kinds of refined zinc and slapping on an export tax in its place, a move that would slow growth in a polluting industry. The Chinese have made a similar intervention in the lead industry, and prices soared afterwards.

The other thing that encourages industry players is the demand picture is still looking strong. Canaccord Adams is forecasting consumption growth of 4.1%, 4.2%, and 5.4% in the next three years.

pkoven@nationalpost.com


And This

Analyst says this may be ideal time to buy copper and zinc stocks

Peter Koven, Financial Post
Published: Saturday, December 01, 2007


With copper and zinc prices under pressure and the equities selling off dramatically, this could be an ideal time to increase exposure to those stocks, according to UBS analyst Tony Lesiak.

He points out that the intermediate copper and zinc producers in the UBS coverage universe are down about 19% in the past month. The primarily zinc equities like Hud-Bay Minerals Inc. and Breakwater Resources Ltd. have been particularly hard hit.

"We find the current valuation metrics for the highly zinc levered names (Breakwater) and (HudBay) to be particularly attractive at current levels," he wrote in a note to clients. "These equities appear oversold relative to the move in the commodity and appear to be discounting zinc prices significantly below current spot levels."

He also points out that takeover activity in this space remains a strong possibility as the base metal companies stockpile cash. Mr. Lesiak estimates that the base-metal firms UBS covers will hold an estimated 22% of their current market cap in cash at the end of next year. HudBay is the standout with a whopping 42%, according to his calculations.

Mr. Lesiak also revised his estimates on a number of stocks to reflect changes in the forward curve pricing for zinc, copper, nickel and gold.

He cut his target on Hud-Bay (HBM/TSX) from $30.50 to $28 a share, and Breakwater (BWR/TSX) was lowered from $3.25 to $2.50 a share.

On Friday, HudBay shares closed at $21.50, while Breakwater shares ended the week trading at $1.79.


Markets to weigh tech vs financials

Markets to weigh tech vs financials

RTGAM



Markets are quietly optimistic that a slew of economic reports on Thursday will shed a warm glow on the status of the U.S. expansion, with a quarterly report from Wall Street's Bear Stearns lurking.

On tap is the U.S. Commerce Department's final reading on third-quarter gross domestic product before the opening bell and the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators after trading begins.

European stocks are rising for the first time in four days, led by automotive, oil and technology companies, with platinum specialist Johnson Matthey said to be in play on a possible bid coming from Dow Chemical.

Analysts say Bear Stearns is expected to report its first ever quarterly loss before the market open, one day after Morgan Stanley took an additional $5.7-billion (U.S.) writedown, bringing its losses on mortgage-related securities to $9.4-billion.

"Bear Stearns is going to be a very big catalyst. They're really one of the ones that started this whole mess with the collapse of their hedge funds over the summer," Tim Smalls, head of U.S. stock trading at Execution LLC, told Reuters. "Once the world knows what these numbers are, then they can at least make an educated decision whether to own the stock or not own the stock."

At 7:30 a.m. EST, Dow Jones industrial futures are up 11 points, S&P 500 futures up 3.3 points and Nasdaq 100 futures up 7.75 points.

So while investors are still nervous about the financial sector, they're encouraged about technology after results from database software maker Oracle topped analysts' estimates and Citigroup raised its price estimate on the stock by 12 per cent to $28.

Nike is also likely to ring up a few endorsements after Lehman Brothers raised its price target on the stock by 8.6 per cent to $76 after second-quarter profit climbed on higher sales in China and Europe and a weaker U.S. dollar.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Financials roil markets

Financials roil markets

RTGAM



Financial stocks sent North American markets on a volatile ride Wednesday as a warning from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce kept Toronto investors reeling while Wall Street faced mixed news from Morgan Stanley.
Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index ended up 31.75 points at 13,389.82 as the financial sector dropped by 0.2 per cent.

Overall, the sector had been up 1 per cent before CIBC announced a "reasonably high probability" that it will incur a "large charge" related to troubles at ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., a hedge counterparty to $3.5-billion (U.S.) in U.S. subprime real estate.
CIBC's stock fell precipitously after the announcement and closed down $1.15 (Canadian) or 1.6 per cent to $71.14 on the TSX.

Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, was forced to take a much larger than expected writedown of $9.4-billion (U.S.) related to the credit crisis, but coupled that with the positive news that it got a $5-billion investment from China's government-controlled investment vehicle, China Investment Corp.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average couldn't overcome an afternoon struggle for gains, closing down 25.2 points to 13,207.3. The Nasdaq composite index also backed out of the valley with a five-point gain to 2,601.01 while the S&P 500 index moved down two points to 1,453.

On the TSX, energy stocks gained 0.7 per cent on a report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.59 million barrels last week.

The light sweet crude oil contract for February closed up $1.16 cents to $91.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Canadian Press

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Sign Of The Times

Stock Bargains For XMAS

WHAT ARE WE LOOKING FOR?

Stocks that are in the bargain bin. One way to find stocks that are overly beaten up is to look at moving averages. Today, we'll look for stocks that are trading the most below their moving averages.


MORE ABOUT TODAY'S SCREEN


A moving average is the average price of the stock over a period of time, such as 50 or 200 days. When a stock is trading well above a moving average, it can be a sign that it is overbought and may pull back. Conversely, if a stock is trading well below a moving average, it may be oversold and worthy of a closer look as a value play.


Today we'll look at Canadian stocks and trusts that are trading well below their 50-day moving averages. Companies and trusts must have a market capitalization of more than $200-million and trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange to qualify for this screen.


***
Stocks trading most below their 50-day moving average

50-day 200-day 50-day 200-day % trading % trading
Price $ 52-wk 52-wk moving moving avg daily avg daily below below
Company name Symbol Dec. 17 low $ high avg $ avg $ volume volume 50-day MA 200-day MA
Quebecor World IQW-T 1.80 1.18 17.25 5.52 10.85 1,396,601 594,629 -67.4 -83.4
NovaGold Resources NG-T 6.15 5.90 20.44 15.36 16.30 688,005 395,152 -60.0 -62.3
Allen-Vanguard Corp. VRS-T 4.99 3.37 11.95 8.96 7.66 1,266,006 622,104 -44.3 -34.9
Cinram International CRW.UN-T 5.40 4.90 30.00 9.51 20.09 1,030,533 405,357 -43.2 -73.1
Laramide Resources LAM-T 5.06 3.95 16.70 8.03 9.81 282,409 356,878 -37.0 -48.4
Central Sun Mining CSM-T 1.05 0.98 5.11 1.58 2.93 1,022,325 755,383 -33.3 -64.2
Skye Resources SKR-T 7.05 7.01 19.34 10.46 13.33 34,772 57,974 -32.6 -47.1
Imperial Metals Corp. III-T 10.06 9.88 19.37 14.78 14.22 44,022 43,296 -31.9 -29.3
Corel CRE-T 8.25 8.25 16.77 12.00 13.63 481 3,096 -31.2 -39.5
Oncothyreon (D) ONY-T 2.45 1.95 10.38 3.53 6.15 78,153 65,329 -30.6 -60.2
True Energy Trust TUI.UN-T 2.83 2.76 8.35 4.04 5.30 259,323 207,569 -29.9 -46.6
Petrolifera Petroleum PDP-T 9.20 9.00 22.35 13.03 16.22 169,911 142,387 -29.4 -43.3
Wi-LAN Inc. WIN-T 2.39 2.32 7.97 3.36 4.37 759,314 710,680 -28.8 -45.3
Mega Uranium MGA-T 2.96 2.38 8.98 4.14 5.25 498,643 604,926 -28.6 -43.6
ATS Automation Tooling ATA-T 4.00 3.71 12.98 5.59 7.30 503,957 509,509 -28.4 -45.2
Thompson Creek Metals TCM-T 15.39 7.11 25.58 21.39 18.47 1,776,322 1,775,049 -28.1 -16.7
Corridor Resources CDH-T 7.35 5.40 12.25 10.18 10.37 78,403 125,446 -27.8 -29.1
First Calgary Petroleums FCP-T 2.65 2.24 7.55 3.67 4.73 1,818,401 1,008,020 -27.7 -43.9
Angiotech Pharmaceut. ANP-T 3.24 3.14 11.15 4.47 6.32 1,431,457 1,332,731 -27.4 -48.7
Starfield Resources Inc. SRU-T 1.02 0.23 1.93 1.40 1.13 996,361 2,726,675 -27.2 -9.8
Etruscan Resources EET-T 1.89 1.86 4.48 2.59 3.12 159,820 103,419 -27.0 -39.5
Western Forest Products WEF-T 1.38 1.37 2.46 1.88 2.07 11,727 10,553 -26.7 -33.4
Crystallex International KRY-T 1.95 1.92 5.70 2.65 3.64 1,005,315 1,480,705 -26.5 -46.4
Breakwater Resources BWR-T 1.68 1.57 3.69 2.27 2.50 8,364,735 6,522,180 -26.0 -32.9
Ivanhoe Energy IE-T 1.43 1.32 3.00 1.92 2.06 344,810 304,888 -25.6 -30.6
Antrim Energy AEN-T 4.14 3.95 8.73 5.53 5.95 119,376 118,780 -25.1 -30.4


SOURCE: GLOBE INVESTOR

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Zinc+Cost LME


All Markets In The Dumper

Stocks mixed amid uncertainty

RTGAM




North American stock markets finished Tuesday's session mixed, as investors digested further liquidity injections by central banks and earnings news from a number of U.S. heavyweights.

The European Central Bank infused about $500-billion (U.S.) into money markets on Tuesday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve auctioned off $20-billion on Monday. Central banks in North America, Europe and Britain are providing billions of dollars in multi-week loans in a bid to boost demand in struggling areas of the credit markets.


The S&P/TSX composite index slumped 29.04 points to 13,358.07, as a drop in the financial sector outweighed gains in gold and mining.



All of the big five Bay Street banks lost ground, with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce leading the way with a 2.6 per cent fall. Among the day's winners, Kinross Gold Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp. rose alongside bullion pric
es.

Peter Chandler, senior vice-president at Canaccord Capital told Reuters that worries about the fallout from the credit crunch and about global economic growth are hampering markets.
"There's ongoing concern about the credit crunch and the spillover fallout that's happened, and more anxiety about what hasn't happened that may happen yet, particularly as it relates to the financial services industry," Mr. Chandler said.

On Wall Street, the Dow industrials closed 65.27 points higher at 13,232.47. In the broader U.S. market, the Nasdaq climbed 21.57 points while the S&P 500 rose 9.08 points.
U.S. technology shares climbed after Adobe Systems Inc. on Monday topped analyst expectations with its fourth-quarter earnings and forecast.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Tuesday also topped profit forecasts, but shares of the U.S. investment bank slumped on word it believes the subprime mess could still hurt its business.
With files from wires.





Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Pescod Talks About Life Changing Stocks





Friday, December 14, 2007

Weekly Status + Pescod Talks Stocks While I'm In Mexico


MOTHER SAID THERE WOULD BE YEARS LIKE THIS!
This year started out with so much fun in the natural
resource sector, but now it’s ending abysmally.

We assume that the worse will be out of the way with the end
of tax-loss selling in the next 10 days, but it has been
horrific of late. Many resource stocks have dropped
50%, uranium stocks even worse. And of course there’s
banking, financial and brokerage stocks—ouch! Glad
we missed that!

We’ve been a big follower of Don Coxe, who has
been an advocate that for the decade we should have
fun in the commodity sector. We expected there would
be bumps along the way, but this is more than a bump.
In the most recent Don Coxe weekly webcast, he
talks about how bad this had been. “It’s a true global
financial crisis and it’s more serious now than it was
earlier.” He continues, “there’s no precedent in financial
history for what we are experiencing and today,
there has never been a better time to make sure you
have your financial ducks in a row.” “This is a big deal”
he repeats.

He makes the great comment looking at a chart of
Citigroup that “if this were the chart at the end of the
hospital bed, for someone in a hospital, you would
probably be sending flowers to the widow.”


lot of cheap stocks out there right now.
Meanwhile, one of our other favorite commentators,
Jeff Rubin, the head market guy at CIBC has been making
outrageous prognostications that have almost always
come correct (two decades ago when he suggested Toronto
real estate would drop 25%, he raised lots of excitement)
and he’s a big believer that energy prices will remain
high if not higher and the sector six months from
now will be better than ever.

Meanwhile, since we’re in this frame of mind, let’s review
the biggest component of oil and gas (at least in Alberta)
and that’s natural gas, and it’s been ugly.

Take a look at some of the charts outlining this and it shows you
over the last two years how absolutely beaten natural gas
stocks have been. Remember, if you are talking oil and
gas in Alberta, 70% of the revenue comes from natural
gas. Most trusts, and oil and gas companies are dominantly
gas. It’s very few that are oil in the majority and
have benefited from $90 oil.

All have been hit by what’s happened in natural gas
where we’ve seen relatively low prices as well as a soaring
loonie, high labor costs, high service costs and now a
government that hasn’t figured out that it’s gas that pays
the bills!

With the upping of royalties coming in down the road,
this could make things worse. Maybe we’ll see many
other companies doing what Exalta did, and just give up
and sell themselves for whatever they could get.
What happens next for some of these natural gas companies?

Well things could get even tougher as so far,
there is no sign of winter through much of North America
except for a brief bit in the U.S. Mid-West, and with inventories
at near record levels, it’s hard to get excited about
this sector. If winter doesn’t come, one wonders how
many gas companies will be left.

Source:Pescod

Monday, December 10, 2007

I'm Mexico Bound

Its cold here in Toronto...time to fly south.
I will be taking some time to enjoy some Mexican Hospitality.
I will check in periodically, but will return Dec 18th.
Take care of PDP+BWR In my short absence



Pre-Fed expectations firm futures

RTGAM

Stock-index futures are upbeat Monday ahead of a likely interest rate cut tomorrow, even though Swiss bank UBS took whopping writedown on subprime mortgage holdings. But in a move reminiscent of Citigroup, UBS got back on track with a big capital injection from Singapore and an unidentified Middle Eastern investor.

"The amazing reaction to UBS' announcement today indicates investors switched to a more positive view," Oliver Hagen, a fund manager with LGT Capital Management, told Bloomberg, referring to UBS shares gaining in Europe. "The strength of financial stocks might support the market in general."

Indeed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase all advanced overseas, sending European markets into positive territory. Separately, Barron's magazine says JP Morgan in a better position to withstand credit-market turmoil because it can count on revenue from non-banking sources.
Investors, though, are eagerly anticipating an interest rate decision in the U.S. on Tuesday, although the market is divided over whether the Federal Reserve will lower rates by a quarter of a percentage point or a half.

At 7:30 a.m. EST, Dow Jones industrial futures are up 28 points, with S&P 500 futures adding 1.4 points and Nasdaq 100 futures up 2.75 points.

In corporate news, the Toronto and Montreal stock exchanges could unveil a merger as early as Monday, reflecting ongoing consolidation globally.

Blackstone Group might be planning a bid to acquire Rio Tinto Ltd., leading a consortium that would include China's sovereign wealth fund, according to a published report in Britain.
And Japanese drug maker Eisai is buying MGI Pharma for $3.9-billion (U.S.) in a move aimed at boosting its cancer drug business and sustaining sales growth.
In the economic pipeline is a report on pending U.S. home sales in October at 10 a.m. EST.

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Stocks surge on home rescue plan+BWR Technicals





Stocks surge on home rescue plan

RTGAM

A plan to help some U.S. mortgage borrowers facing huge increases in interest rates helped send stock markets sharply higher for a second day Thursday.
The Toronto stock got extra lift from energy stocks amid sharply higher oil prices, which helped to overcome a drop in the financial sector following earnings reports from CIBC and Scotiabank.
The Toronto stock market's S&P/TSX composite index gained 115.26 points to 13,849.8. The TSX Venture Exchange drifted 24.15 points higher to 2,716.37.

The Canadian dollar had another volatile session, starting off negative after losing about 1.5 cents (U.S.) since the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by a quarter point Tuesday, then jumping 0.6 of a cent to close at 99.09 cents.
Part of the reason for the gain was Thursday's sharp spike in oil prices but analysts also noted that the dollar had fallen heavily, more than 10 per cent, since topping $1.10 on Nov. 7.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials gained 174.93 points to 13,619.89 after President George W. Bush announced a plan allowing some homeowners facing foreclosure to freeze their interest rates for up to five years or refinance their mortgages.
The Nasdaq composite index rose 42.67 points to 2,709.03 points and the S&P 500 index was 22.33 points higher to 1,507.34.

In Toronto, the base metals sector jumped 4.55 per cent on merger and acquisition activity.
The energy sector was up 1.6 per cent as the January crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed $2.74 to $90.23. Canadian Press

Copyright 2001 The Globe and Mail

BWR Technicals


Good News Breakwater Provides Update On Its Mochito Mine




Breakwater Provides Update On Its Mochito Mine
Breakwater Resources Ltd. ("Breakwater") (TSX-BWR)


TORONTO, Dec. 6 /CNW/ - Milling operations at the Mochito mine, located in Honduras, have returned to normal levels and the Company is currently depositing tailings in the Pozo Azul tailings impoundment area. On October 18, 2007, the Company announced that it had discovered a discharge of water from the newly commissioned Soledad tailings impoundment area which necessitated a suspension of milling at Mochito. It was determined that recommissioning the Pozo Azul tailings impoundment area, for which permitting remained in place, would be the quickest method of returning Mochito to full production. Mining continued throughout this period and construction is underway at Pozo Azul to increase the capacity of this tailings impoundment area to hold up to 24 months of additional material while plans are being formulated to repair Soledad.

GMP Crosses 2 Million Warrants


GMP Dumps Over 650,000 Shares

EQN VS BWR

The stock is up 15% Today, On Good Volume.


First Quantum acquires 41.3 million shares of Equinox

2007-12-06 10:00 ET - News Release

See News Release (C-FM) First Quantum Minerals Ltd

Mr. Clive Newall of First Quantum reports

FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS ACQUIRES 17.27% INTEREST IN EQUINOX MINERALS LIMITED

First Quantum Minerals Ltd., on Dec. 5, 2007, acquired 41.3 million common shares in Equinox Minerals Ltd. representing 7.31 per cent of the issued and outstanding shares. After the acquisition of the shares, First Quantum will beneficially own 97,556,700 common shares representing 17.27 per cent of the issued and outstanding shares of Equinox Minerals.

The securities were acquired through the facilities of the Toronto Stock Exchange. First Quantum has acquired the common shares for investment purposes and may acquire further common shares or dispose of its holdings of common shares both as investment conditions warrant.

We seek Safe Harbor.





Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Pescod Shows Teck + BWR Are The Same Chart




Click Here For The Whole Pescod Newsletter

China may cancel VAT export rebate and levy export tax on 0# zinc

By Ida Chen

Shanghai. November 12. INTERFAX-CHINA - The Chinese government is considering canceling the current 5 percent value-added tax (VAT) export rebate and imposing a minimum 5 percent export tax on 0# refined zinc (>=99.995 percent) in January next year, in order to slow investment growth in zinc smelting projects and curb the country's huge trade surplus, industry insiders told Interfax today.

"The policy is still being discussed by relevant government departments and major smelters. However, as smelters, we hope the existing policy can be retained," a senior official, surnamed Wang, from the trading department of Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter Group, China's leading zinc smelter, said.

Wang expressed concern that the policy may burden domestic zinc smelters with unprecedented difficulties. "The domestic zinc smelting sector will face the same problems as the lead smelting sector is currently facing," he added.

The policy will result in a significant drop in China's zinc exports and tight global supply, which will in turn dramatically increase both global zinc prices and zinc concentrate prices. Domestic zinc smelters will have no choice but to accept soaring imported concentrate prices, and will probably be forced to reduce production, Wang explained.

Zhu Yiman, an analyst from Commodity Business Intelligence China, a Shanghai-based commodity market service provider told Interfax that "it is only a matter of time before the government cancels the VAT export rebate on 0# zinc, as other types of refined zinc, namely 1# zinc (>=99.99 percent but <99.995>(<99.99>

Zhu further commented that major smelters met with government departments last Friday to discuss policy feasibility, but no details have been released to date.

0# zinc is the standard form of zinc on both the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and accounts for the majority of China's zinc exports.

China imported 104,729 tons of zinc in the first nine months of this year, slumping 56.1 percent from the same period last year, while exports climbed 43.7 percent to 248,233 tons. As a result, net exports reached 143,504 tons. Exports in September tumbled by 44.03 percent from August to 12,325 tons, down 18.5 percent from the same period last year.

The country produced 2.696 million tons of refined zinc in the first nine months, up 19 percent year-on-year, creating ample supply that has dragged zinc futures to record lows since their debut on the Shanghai Futures Exchange in March this year.

Zinc for immediate delivery at the benchmark Shanghai Yangtze River Market traded at an average of RMB 22,500 ($3,036.44) per ton today, down RMB 200 ($26.99) from last Friday.

Click Source








Click Pics Bigger







PDP An Easy Double From Here- BreakOut Pending



Getting No Respect At All- Buy Them While They're Cheap
This Is A Double Within 3 mths



(Shareholders and investors can access the presentation by clicking the play below. Treasure Picks)

OSC Catch Small Fish Lose Big Fish


Richer rogues not on radar
New study on corporate crime suggests system is stacked in favour of influential industry insiders
December 05, 2007

Business Reporter

Regulators charged with pursuing insider traders and other market scammers tend to target small-time crooks and shy away from high-profile figures with deep pockets and powerful lawyers, according to a new study out of Queen's University.

"What happens is that they bifurcate the population of rogues," says study author Laureen Snider, a professor of sociology who has spent 25 years researching corporate crime and the role of regulatory agencies.

"They try to concentrate their resources on where they're more likely to get action."

As part of her latest research, Snider conducted a number of anonymous interviews with enforcement officials at the Ontario Securities Commission and the British Columbia Securities Commission, as well as some RCMP officers within the force's four-year-old Integrated Market Enforcement Team.

She discovered immense frustration and a sense that the system, the way it's designed, is stacked against enforcement officials and in favour of industry "stakeholders" who help determine the rules that oversee them.

"You're dealing with very powerful actors, and these actors are referred to by and large as stakeholders, so they get the chance to shape legislation," Snider explains.

The OSC, for example, routinely holds consultation meetings with those in the financial industry, giving the perception that the regulator's primary role isn't to protect investors.

Snider says it's a model that gives unusual power to those in the financial sector who are regulated, pointing out that such an approach doesn't happen, and would never be accepted, with traditional criminal enforcement. "The police don't habitually consult prospective burglars on Criminal Code changes, but regulatory agencies must negotiate with those they are charged with regulating."

It's a major problem, she adds, "if you believe in equality. Our system is theoretically premised on equality."

During her interviews she also discovered that lawyers representing powerful clients routinely flood regulators and investigators with paperwork, resulting in major case delays as staff pore over a seemingly endless stream of documents and data.

"One of the officials I interviewed called it death by 53 cartons and boxes," she recalls.

OSC enforcement director Michael Watson, speaking at an investors gathering last month in Toronto, said it isn't unusual on specific cases to have to sift through hundreds of thousands of document pages. "It's just a function of the electronic age," he said.

"Right now we have four cases we're working on that have more than three million pages of documents. So the cases are getting bigger from that point of view."

Claude Lamoureux, the recently retired president and chief executive officer of the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, characterizes it as a battle "between a peewee hockey team and an NHL hockey club."

"Those being investigated or charged will understandably bring substantial high-quality resources to bear to defend themselves," wrote Nick Le Pan, a special adviser to the federal government, in a report released on Monday that examines how to make the RCMP's enforcement team program more effective.

"The program is `playing in the big leagues' and needs to act that way."

Snider, however, says it's challenging playing in the big leagues if the way the system is designed has major imbalances and other flaws.

"There's no way I defend it, but in order to understand why regulators make the decisions they do and why their hands are tied as they are, you have to look at that context."



Without leadership, enforcers become enablers
December 05, 2007

Here's my favourite bit from Nick Le Pan's report on Enhancing Integrated Market Enforcement Teams, released on Monday.

"In meeting with persons involved in capital markets enforcement in the U.S. and those in Canada ... I am struck by very significant differences in tone and the assertiveness of approach."

Le Pan, the former federal superintendent of financial institutions, offers a nod to those who critique the U.S. smackdown of white-collar criminals as overly zealous, and in no way recommends an emulation of an American-style justice system. But – and this is a big but in my view – Le Pan posits this: "I do believe that more of that tone of results focus, and assertiveness, is essential in Canada in order to get the results that most Canadians want."

So here we are in the virgin north of capital markets crime enforcement and we can't claim convictions to any meaningful degree and we can't claim investigative might and now we know we can't even claim assertiveness.

Like, can we possibly be any more Canadian?

Le Pan's task was to develop and guide a new plan to improve the effectiveness of IMETs, which, for a start, could use a new name for the enforcement teams.

But that's beside the point.

With rigour and insight, he examined the architecture and day-to-day management of the teams and found much wanting. "There are problems of leadership, accountability, oversight, management, timely focus, timely support for investigations, internal and external communications, and human resources that must be addressed."

Perhaps the coffee is bad, too.

Why, precisely, should we be paying such close attention to these revelations? Because, as Le Pan reminds, enforcement teams are one of the few truly national elements of capital markets regulation that exist in this country.

Of course that needs changing: a national securities regulator is a must. But the Le Pan report does much to issue a useful warning that just because a national body is created and just because a bunch of money is thrown at it, doesn't mean it actually works.

The IMETs idea, co-ordinating RCMP officers with external experts in white-collar crime, is sound, Le Pan says. But the architecture? Not so much.

Le Pan noted frictions and "surprises" between RCMP divisions and enforcement teams divisions, and between RCMP HQ and its own divisions. Here's a gem: "The HQ director of the IMET program had limited authority to actually direct or co-ordinate the program, which was essentially run as four semi-independent units under the guidance of four criminal operations managers."

What's missing: consistency, clarity, accountability. "The program cannot succeed if this is not rectified," Le Pan writes. (Those are my italics.)

What's particularly cheering is the way in which Le Pan rejects the notion that legislative differences between Canada and the U.S. fully explain the lack of results here in Canada measured against the abundant results there, south of the border. This is one of the puffy, warm blankets that Canadian enforcers have been snuggled under for far too long a time.

"Credibility comes from results," writes Le Pan, who later adds, "A high per cent of investigations that are started should result in charges, on average. (Otherwise, original case selection or conduct of investigations is questionable.)"

Rigorous oversight to ensure "appropriate pace and direction" of investigations is one proposed remedy. Fixing targeted times between the start of investigations and decisions taken on a case (to charge or not to charge) is another. Balanced scorecard recording to link goals and results is a third.

Leadership. Lots comes down to leadership. Assertive leadership. In the absence of that, Canada's cops, its regulators, its crime fighters aren't enforcers. They're enablers.


Ontario reveals ABCP writedown
Finance Minister says $100 million charge won't affect province's bottom line
December 04, 2007

THE CANADIAN PRESS

Some of Canada's provinces are feeling the sting of exposure to asset-backed commercial paper, the short-term investment vehicles that have saddled corporations around the world with unexpected losses.

Others, however, remain high and dry after refusing to put their money into the investments, considering them too risky.

On Tuesday, the Ontario government disclosed that it would take an estimated writedown of less than $100 million linked to ABCP.

But Finance Minister Dwight Duncan said the writedown wouldn't affect the province's bottom line "in a significant way."

"When the writedown occurs – and it's a small portion – it doesn't impact the income statement at all," he said at Queen's Park, the provincial legislature.

ABCP is a type of short-term security representing packages of mortgages, credit-card receivables and other debts.

The notes normally roll over uneventfully as they mature, but buyers disappeared in August amid worries about the underlying credits as fear deepened about the U.S. subprime mortgage collapse.

Since then, banks and corporations around the world have begun to disclose multi-million-dollar writedowns that have cut into profits.

Ontario's Ministry of Finance said the provincial government holds about $719.5-million worth of ABCP, representing less than 10 per cent of the $9-billion cash reserve – or about 1 per cent of the annual budget.

"It hurts, but it hurts in the balance sheet," Duncan said.

"It was spent in years past and already accounted for. The investments were done, as I understand it, last year and these are holdings that are on the statement."

Last month Alberta's Crown corporation ATB Financial – once known as the Alberta Treasury Branches – said it would take a $79.6-million charge for potential losses and restructuring costs due to ABCP.

And last week, the head of Quebec's Caisse de depot et placement pension fund said it could lose up to $500 million – or about 0.3 per cent of its assets – due to ABCP woes.

Yukon Territory's government faces potential losses related to $36.5 million it chose to tie up in the investments earlier this year, while its neighbouring territories have longtime regulations that forbid them from putting money into the vehicle.

In Nunavut, Treasury Analyst David Hrynkow said local investment regulations don't allow the territory to put its money into ABCP.

"We based our regulations on the amount of risk that we wanted to take. Our primary concern was safety of capital," Hrynkow said in phone interview.

"I think we're just more conservative."

An attempt to shift short-term commercial paper into longer-term investments has been set for an event called the Montreal Accord. On Dec. 14, several key capital market investors will meet to discuss solutions to ease liquidity worries.



Tuesday, December 4, 2007

BWR +PDP Houses Today



PDP A Buy + New Oil Discovery!

Petrolifera Petroleum announces new Sierras Blancas oil discovery
at Puesto Morales, Argentina and provides operating update

CALGARY, Dec. 3 /CNW/ - Petrolifera Petroleum Limited (PDP - TSX)
announces today that the PMN 1038 well on the company's 100 percent-owned and
operated Puesto Morales Concession in the Neuquén Basin, Argentina has
recently tested light gravity crude oil at a rate of approximately 1,500 bbl/d
from the Sierras Blancas Formation.

The results are important as the well is situated between the company's
Northern and Central lobes of the Puesto Morales Norte Field and indicates
continuity between the two accumulations. The well will be completed and tied
in shortly and it is anticipated the well will be produced initially at a rate
of between 500 bbl/d - 1,000 bbl/d.

Four drilling rigs and four service rigs continue to operate for
Petrolifera on its Puesto Morales and Rinconada Blocks which comprise the
concession. Included in current drilling is the 1017 well, situated southeast
of the central lobe; this is the first deviated well to be drilled on the
concession using the Quintana No. 13 rig, which was imported into Argentina
and has greater drilling depth capacity.

This rig has been used to drill a number of water injection wells during its break-in period.
The company's water treatment, water injection and water handling facilities are scheduled
for a December 2007 startup, which should increasingly impact on overall
production levels during the ensuing 18 months, as the waterflood pressure
maintenance scheme becomes operative and effective.

Separately, Petrolifera advises that a commissioning ceremony was
recently held for the company's high pressure natural gas pipeline which runs
from the Puesto Morales Norte field to the Medanito area. It is anticipated
the pipeline will initially handle approximately 10 mmcf/d of natural gas,
including associated gas from the surrounding oil field and some
non-associated natural gas from the Loma Montosa and Sierra Blancas
Formations. The rated capacity of the new pipeline with in-place compression
is 35 mmcf/d, which would allow for continuing sales expansion.

Recently, Petrolifera tested 2.3 mmcf/d of natural gas and 20 bbl/d of
condensate through a 14 mm choke from its PMOx-1001 well, located on the
western border of the concession. It appears probable this well will be tied
into the new high pressure pipeline for immediate sale to available industrial
markets. Additionally, the company recently tested over 1 mmcf/d from a basal
Loma Montosa zone in the 1007 well, located within the Puesto Morales Sur
Field. Crude oil was also tested from the Loma Montosa Zone 10 in this well
and following a frac, it is anticipated the well will be completed as a dual
zone producer and tied in to production facilities.

In Peru, the company's 2D seismic program on Ucayali Block 107 is
proceeding favorably with encouraging preliminary results. The company is also
advancing discussions to secure a suitable heli-transportable drilling rig for
use in drilling a well or wells on Block 107 during the latter months of 2008
and into 2009. Drilling is also anticipated on Block 106 in the Maranon Basin
during 2009, following completion of the company's Environmental Impact
Assessment and shooting a 550 kilometer 2D seismic program in 2008.

In Colombia, several drillable prospects have been defined on the Sierra
Nevada I license and plans are progressing to secure drilling rig commitments
for the second half of 2008. Petrolifera is pleased with the quality of
prospects it has generated in Colombia, including their associated reserve
potential.

Petrolifera Petroleum Limited is a Calgary-based crude oil and natural
gas exploration and production company engaged in activity in Argentina, Peru
and Colombia. The company owns or controls in excess of 6.5 million acres of
petroleum and natural gas rights in sub-Andean basins in South America. As
disclosed in the company's recent Investor Presentation, which is posted on
its website at www.petrolifera.ca, production is expected to increase to a
targeted level of 14,500 boe/d by year end 2008, reflecting the impact of
development drilling, the waterflood at Puesto Morales, increased sales of
natural gas and the impact of the company's ongoing 69 well drilling program
in Argentina. No volume impact for drilling success in either Peru or Colombia
is factored into the company's production outlook.

AN INTERVIEW WITH ANDY GUSTAJTIS,
ANALYST WITH DOMINICK AND DOMINICK
(As of November 28, 2007)

D.P: There is an interesting play in South America after
what you have mention about Latin America – Petrolifera
Petroleum, which has had a little bit of problems in Argentina,
but for anyone who has seen the seismic on their
projects in Peru gets excited.

A.G: With Peru's Camisea Gas Project, Peru is now on
the radar screen as a country that has the potential for
elephant discoveries.

There is a pipeline into the Pacific Coast; there are moves now underway to bring this gas by
LNG into North America.

I think Petrolifera has a very competent, technical team running the Company.

They have been very successful in Argentina, they hand-picked
the two licenses they got in Peru. They obtained those
licenses before the global oil industry woke up to the opportunities
in Peru. The early seismic is confirming they
have a huge opportunity which will take time but I am not
long the stock for a short term flip.

With success Petrolifera could be a multi-billion Company.

These type opportunities are extremely hard to land.


A.G: Being a little bit of a gambler, I would basically think that Pacific Energy (if they could get this refinancing accomplished and out of the way) could prove to be quite an exciting story. I would put them as my number one favorite. I’m hopeful that we are going to see some new contracts being announced from Sustainable Energy in the next few weeks,
if not months and if that happens, I think the stocks could get some momentum and move to new highs. And I still think that Connacher is so unbelievably undervalued in relationship to what it offers, that I would have to put Connacher as a strong buy here.

Andy Gustajtis is an Officer and Managing Director of D&D Securities Company which is a member of the IDA and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. His comments are believed to be reliable but we cannot represent that the information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. D&D Securities Company, its officers, directors or employees from time to time may hold shares, options or warrants on any issue included in this interview. D&D Securities Company has actively participated in financing of ARISE Technologies, Corridor Resources, Connacher Oil & Gas, Sustainable Energy and Pacific Energy. Comments made should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell and securities.

Monday, December 3, 2007

BWR Houses +TA

AN INTERVIEW WITH ANDY GUSTAJTIS + Pescod


AN INTERVIEW WITH ANDY GUSTAJTIS,
ANALYST WITH DOMINICK AND DOMINICK
(As of November 28, 2007)

D.P: There is an interesting play in South America after
what you have mention about Latin America – Petrolifera
Petroleum, which has had a little bit of problems in Argentina,
but for anyone who has seen the seismic on their
projects in Peru gets excited.

A.G: With Peru's Camisea Gas Project, Peru is now on
the radar screen as a country that has the potential for
elephant discoveries.

There is a pipeline into the Pacific Coast; there are moves now underway to bring this gas by
LNG into North America.

I think Petrolifera has a very competent, technical team running the Company.

They have been very successful in Argentina, they hand-picked
the two licenses they got in Peru. They obtained those
licenses before the global oil industry woke up to the opportunities
in Peru. The early seismic is confirming they
have a huge opportunity which will take time but I am not
long the stock for a short term flip.

With success Petrolifera could be a multi-billion Company.

These type opportunities are extremely hard to land.


A.G: Being a little bit of a gambler, I would basically think that Pacific Energy (if they could get this refinancing accomplished and out of the way) could prove to be quite an exciting story. I would put them as my number one favorite. I’m hopeful that we are going to see some new contracts being announced from Sustainable Energy in the next few weeks,
if not months and if that happens, I think the stocks could get some momentum and move to new highs. And I still think that Connacher is so unbelievably undervalued in relationship to what it offers, that I would have to put Connacher as a strong buy here.

Andy Gustajtis is an Officer and Managing Director of D&D Securities Company which is a member of the IDA and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. His comments are believed to be reliable but we cannot represent that the information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. D&D Securities Company, its officers, directors or employees from time to time may hold shares, options or warrants on any issue included in this interview. D&D Securities Company has actively participated in financing of ARISE Technologies, Corridor Resources, Connacher Oil & Gas, Sustainable Energy and Pacific Energy. Comments made should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell and securities.

Click Here For The Full PDF Report

Jim Cramers Stock Tips + 2008 Zinc news

What Your Portfolio Should Look Like According To Cramer


Jim Cramer’s stock tips


MSN Tracking Image
MSNBC.com


Crude sinks below $88 a barrel; U.S. gasoline prices ease
The Associated Press
updated 11:25 a.m. ET, Mon., Dec. 3, 2007

NEW YORK - Oil prices fell in volatile trading Monday as investors placed bets on whether OPEC oil ministers will increase production during a meeting later this week.

At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices fell 2.7 cents overnight to a national average of $3.061 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Analysts expect gas prices to continue sliding in the weeks to come, as long as oil prices continue to fall.

Crude futures have dropped about $11 in one week on the belief that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have all but decided to boost production. But the price drop itself has raised questions about whether OPEC ministers will follow through during the Wednesday meeting in Abu Dhabi.

Recent OPEC comments about production increases have been divided, with ministers from Venezuela and Qatar suggesting there’s no need to boost supplies, while ministers from Indonesia, Nigeria and Kuwait say they’re still open to increases. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi, possibly the most influential member of the cartel, has struck a neutral tone, telling reporters this weekend that “the field is wide open.”

“The rhetoric over the weekend has not made the picture any clearer as to which way the cartel will go,” said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global UK Ltd., in a research note.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell $1.17 to $87.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but rose at times to near break-even.

Concerns about the economy were also weighing on prices. Several economic reports over the past week have suggested that growth is slowing, and the Institute for Supply Management, a Tempe, Ariz.-based trade group, on Monday reported that growth in the manufacturing sector slowed in November.

“There’s sort of a growing feeling that we’re going to see demand ... being so weak that this is going to pull prices down,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. in Amherst, Mass.

Lynch thinks OPEC will hold production levels steady, arguing that last week’s price declines have largely accomplished the cartel’s goals. OPEC is also worried that an oversupplied oil market would drive prices dramatically lower, Lynch said.

Other analysts are divided in their views, but a consensus appears to be forming that OPEC will increase production if prices remain above $80 a barrel.

Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill., notes that what OPEC says and what it does are not necessarily one and the same thing. The cartel could easily announce a production increase to keep prices on their downward tack, but then decline to boost supplies if prices remain low in the coming months.

“OPEC could easily fall short of any agreed upon production increase,” Ritterbusch said in a research note. “OPEC’s main goal out of this meeting will be to apply some bearish psychological pressures to a market that some key cartel members feel has been taken out of their control.”

Other energy futures also fell Monday. Gasoline for January delivery fell 2.16 cents to $2.209 a gallon on the Nymex, while January heating oil fell 4 cents to $2.475 a gallon.

January natural gas futures fell 11.7 cents to $7.185 per 1,000 cubic feet on the Nymex.

In London, January Brent crude dropped 76 cents to $87.50 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Weekly Report



Shipping rates for oil soaring

Print this article
Monday, December 03, 2007

Shipping rates for wet cargo have “strengthened phenomenally” in recent weeks, especially in shipments designed for Asia, suggesting a big jump in OPEC crude oil shipments and prices dipping below $80 (U.S.) a barrel in the next few months, according to Merrill Lynch.
Part of the production hike reflects fields in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia coming on stream, as well as higher output from Iraqi, contends analyst Francisco Blanch.
He figures OPEC output will reach 32 million barrels a day by March, up from 30 million barrels last June, with non-OPEC production climbing by 1.1 million by March.
All of which could result in supply exceeding demand and prices coming down.

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

Sunday, December 2, 2007

We'll all pay a steep price for greed of bankers

We'll all pay a steep price for greed of bankers
December 02, 2007

W hen bankers mess up – and it is reckless behaviour by banks that now threatens us with a credit crunch and even a recession – they quickly turn to governments to bail them out.

These masters of the universe are now on a diet of humble pie, although those at the top who are to blame still get huge multi-million-dollar severance packages when they leave and keep past bonuses we can now see were unjustified.

At least in Canada our bankers seem like Boy Scouts compared with what we see on Wall Street or in the City in London.

Central banks in the United States and Europe have had to flood financial markets with tens of billions of dollars to bail out financial institutions, and the big writedowns are not over yet. Bankers are also begging central banks to lower interest rates to keep their ships afloat. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut its key rate on Tuesday and the U.S. Federal Reserve on Dec. 11.

Banks play a unique role in the economy. They are much like public utilities – they act as repositories of our savings, allocators of credit to businesses, and consumers and managers of the payments system.

Governments support banks by giving them ready access to loans from central banks to balance their own books and by operating a system of deposit insurance so individuals have confidence their deposits are safe. Major banks also operate on the assumption governments can't afford to let them fail because of their essential role.

But at the same time, banks are profit-seeking businesses, and their top executives are generously rewarded with multi-million-dollar compensation packages for high performance.

So bankers have a problem. They must operate under rules designed to make them act prudently. But big profits may come from acting less prudently.

These rules, though, only apply to the balance sheets of banks. So banks and their executives have pursued off-balance-sheet activities such as various collaterized debt obligations for which they earn huge fees and escape the eye of regulators. Moreover, because banks make loans but then sell them to other investors, lending standards may be relaxed.

This is the root of the current crisis. U.S. banks made hundreds of billions of dollars of so-called subprime loans to home buyers who had questionable capacity to repay and under prudent loan practices would not have obtained mortgages.

But now, as these mortgages face new terms, many borrowers cannot maintain payments. Housing prices are in a nosedive and foreclosures are on the steep upswing.

A large proportion of these mortgages were packaged into dubious investment vehicles and sold to foreigners, including Canadians, backed by triple A ratings from U.S. rating agencies. This meant, says Stephen King, chief economist of HSBC, that "the rest of the world has funded the expansion of the U.S. housing market through increased purchase of assets that are, in many cases, now seen to be not much more than toxic waste."

Ordinary people around the world will now pay a high price for this recklessness and greed of bankers. The credit crunch will reduce their ability to borrow, and we face a possible recession that could cost their jobs.

As Larry Summers, the former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, warns, "the capacity of the financial system to provide credit in support of new investment on the scale necessary to maintain economic expansion is increasingly in doubt." Banks must rebuild their own finances after major writedowns and are now risk-averse.

Clearly, we need a better way of regulating the financial system to give much greater transparency to risks and to change the incentive system so that bankers are not driven by a readiness to bend corners for greater personal wealth.


David Crane's column on Global Issues appears Sundays.

Why white-collar crime team fizzled-The OSC Fails

COLIN MCCONNELL/TORONTO STAR FILE PHOTO
The media were out in force when IMET raided downtown offices in February, 2005.
THE SERIES

YESTERDAY:
How regulators have failed to crack down on stock market miscreants while developing an international reputation for inaction and ineffectiveness.

TODAY: How a big-budget police squad set up to take on corporate crime degenerated into a bureaucratic mess with few results.

TOMORROW: An interview with the head of securities watchdog, Ontario Securities Commission chairman David Wilson.

COMING UP: What’s needed to fix the mess.
Launched four years ago to clean up markets, police squad is now best known for its failures
December 02, 2007

Business reporter

It was designed for show, an in-your-face warning in the heart of Canada's financial centre.

Two dozen police, followed by a swarm of reporters and television crews, swept into the Bank of Nova Scotia at King and Bay armed with a search warrant. The bank itself was not under suspicion. It had been caught up in a probe surrounding another company, Royal Group Technologies Ltd.

It was the first operation of IMET – the Integrated Market Enforcement Team – set up 14 months earlier to tackle white collar crime in Canada. The idea was to make headlines.

"They're sending a message to investors ... `We're going to clean up the markets and you can depend on us,'" Richard Powers, professor at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management, said at the time.

Yet after four years of operation, only five charges have been laid – one in Vancouver and four in Toronto. In the Vancouver case, broker Kevin Steele was jailed six years for bilking investors out of $10.3 million.

The four Toronto cases – accounting fraud, stock market manipulation, theft and fraud over $5,000 – are still working their way through the courts. IMET's investigation into Royal Group is continuing. To date, no charges have been filed.

Today when the enforcement team makes the news, it's usually because of its dismal track record. Instead of reaping glory, the vaunted police squad is becoming a public whipping boy in the debate about Canada's perceived tendency to let white-collar crime go unpunished.

Even the man in charge admits to shortcomings.

"There's a lot of stakeholders unhappy and I think justifiably so," said John Sliter, the head of IMET in Ottawa.

But he's quick to deflect blame: "Yes, justice is taking a long time, but I don't want to put the full responsibility for that on [IMET's] shoulders. In that sense, it's the Canadian system."

Interviews with former officers and other observers show IMET started with much hope, but soon felt the burden of a weighty RCMP bureaucracy and territorial bickering.

Former team leaders in Toronto and Vancouver talk of their frustration and "disappointment across all boundaries." Investigators complain of legal roadblocks in increasingly complicated cases, leading to delays in investigations and charges being laid.

The federal government commissioned a report last May to look into IMET's failings. It's recommendations are expected to be released this week.

The Integrated Market Enforcement Team was formed in 2003, when stock markets and regulators around the world were still smarting from the effects of U.S. scandals like Enron and WorldCom.

Canada's own high-profile debacles – Bre-X Minerals Ltd. and YBM Magnex Ltd.– were still fresh, and the federal government wanted to set investors' minds at ease. For the first time, an elite team of regulators, police and legal experts was being brought together to investigate and prosecute big stock market crimes.

"Helping protect Canadian capital markets, that's what this announcement is all about," Canada's solicitor-general, Wayne Eaton, told reporters at the time.

Ottawa dedicated $120 million over five years to set up nine units across Canada, in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Montreal.

The Toronto units were to be led by Detective Inspector Craig Hannaford. A veteran white-collar crime officer, Hannaford headed up the RCMP's probe of Livent, the Toronto theatre company that imploded under charges that Garth Drabinsky and other former principals had falsified corporate statements. A trial is expected to begin in the spring.

Setting up the teams took upwards of a year, a complex process that involved getting secure sites and staff. Territorial issues emerged early on.

Prosecutors from the federal department of justice were deemed essential to help guide the complex investigations.

According to an internal planning document, obtained by Canadian Press in March, 2006, federal lawyers were needed to give "advice and assistance regarding aspects such as wiretap applications, search warrants and disclosure advice to the IMETS during the course of investigations."

The justice department had been given $17 million to make the lawyers available, but it initially failed to do so.

"We are at a point in our implementation where we are in dire need of legal advisers to work alongside of our investigators. They were to form an integral part of our integrated teams," Sliter wrote to the department almost a year after the launch. Delays, as well as the lingering feeling that neither provincial nor federal prosecutors were willing to step up, hurt morale, said Bill Majcher, former head of IMET's Vancouver team.

"For the better part of the time I was there, we didn't have either the provincial or federal Crown (prosecutor) willing to take responsibility for dealing with us. We were already running, and then things start falling apart ..." Today, lawyers from the department are assigned to IMET teams in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal.

Despite the program's well-funded start, it could be difficult to get beyond established RCMP procedures when it came to hiring and pay, former insiders say.

In Toronto, Hannaford wanted a stock market expert on the team, a career Bay Streeter who knew the big players, the market mechanics, and what was ordinary trading activity and what was not – credentials, he knew, would command a six-figure salary. The government's standard checklist for qualifications, however, put the pay scale in the middle five digits.

"We just couldn't get the classification process in the government to recognize that this person had to be paid fairly well," Hannaford said.

Another frustration was the RCMP's habit of pulling officers off projects when it was short-staffed in other areas. Need more security for visiting world leaders? Get an officer from IMET. A big drug or immigration case needs more manpower? IMET.

IMET officers also complain that the Canadian legal system is too easily bogged down by procedural sideshows such as stringent disclosure requirements – the prosecutor's legal responsibility to give the defence access to all evidence it has gathered during an investigation.

In a complicated stock market fraud or investment scam, disclosure can amount to hundreds of thousands of documents that have to be gathered, sorted, organized, and copied so they can be given over to the defendant and his lawyers as soon as charges are laid in a case.

By some estimates, 30 per cent of the cost of an investigation goes to cataloguing, tracking, and duplicating information to make sure copies will be available for the defence.

Even so, prosecutors may only rely on 100 documents or so to present their case; the defence, about the same when putting alternate theories forward. "The rest is just sort of filler," says Majcher, "but if somehow one box of nothing didn't get stored properly, in many cases that's the basis for having a case tossed."

Another hurdle, they say, is the issue of compelling witnesses to speak to investigators.

In the U.S., prosecutors can issue subpoenas, forcing witnesses to provide testimony before a grand jury once charges are laid.

Under Canadian law, members of the public are under no obligation to speak to law enforcement officers. When trying to piece together a securities fraud case, the accountants, consultants, and other office staff who may have information invariably consult their lawyers, then tell investigators they don't want to give a statement.

If officers can convince a witness to talk to them, it's strictly voluntary. "It's basically, we're totally open to their schedule and their lawyer's schedule," Hannaford said.

To add insult to injury, under the Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty, authorities from other countries who come to Canada to conduct investigations can legally compel witnesses to provide statements. "So you have a funny situation where foreign law enforcement have more power to collect evidence from witnesses in Canada than our own domestic police," Hannaford said.

All this leads to investigations dragging on, and on. Add historically light sentences into the mix, and it's a recipe for plummeting morale.

In the meantime, white collar crime in Canada festers – along with a growing reputation for being soft on stock market and financial crime. Majcher saw the devastating effect Canada's disclosure law can have on international investigations first-hand in 2002 when he went undercover as part of a joint RCMP-FBI sting that nabbed two corrupt Canadian lawyers.

The sting included Jack Purdy, a Canadian stock promoter who was charged, but later acquitted of money laundering.

Even though the charges were filed in Florida, Purdy's lawyer was able to convince a judge that the RCMP should be forced to turn over all its documents in the case, including those that actually came from the FBI.

"The defence lawyer says he's a Canadian citizen and protected by the Charter,'" Majcher recalled. " `He's entitled to everything in that (RCMP) file, including FBI intelligence reports, their operational plans, and other notes.'"

The judge agreed, and the FBI officers involved were completely furious, threatening to cut Canadian law enforcement out of subsequent investigations.

Majcher says that now he's on the investment side, he's a managing director with Hong Kong-based investment bank Baron Group, he sees the impact on Canada's reputation in a new light.

"I remember meeting a fellow in New York. He said, `Bill, what's your area code. I said 604. He said, `Oh, that's one of the area codes that I don't answer.'"


Saturday, December 1, 2007

The Grandich Letter Dec 1 2007

The markets will trade in more and more of a holiday-like atmosphere as we get
closer to year-end. Because of this, we could see moves exaggerated by lack of
liquidity. For the most part, it’s safe to assume we’re not witnessing any earthshattering
changes to longer term directions.

General Overview –

On the slight chance that General Kudlow, King “BooYah” and the vast armies of
the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street umpteenth pronouncement that
all is well and it’s safe to go in the water again is wrong (perish the thought), I’m
going to watch this video again http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxoP_9W6FC8 and
remind myself of the following saying before I buy into the latest “all clear” signal:


Copper –
It recently tested key support just under $3 and bounced. I do believe it should
eventually break that support as a massive top has formed technically and my
long-term target of $2-$2.50 looks more likely. I do believe that as the price
weakens to a move below $3, one should re-established with some copper exposure.
The $2-$2.50 area should prove to be just a corrective level and in the next 3-5
years a move to new highs above $4 appears in the cards.

Mining and Exploration Shares –
Given the relative strength in most metal prices versus price levels of just a few
years ago, most mining and exploration shares aren’t even close to full valuation
when compared to metal prices of 5, 10 and 20 years ago and their relation to
mining and exploration share prices at that same time. There are many reasons
for this and here, too, I’ll go into it in January. But let me remind you of a month
or two ago when I suggested that we’re likely to see some serious tax-loss selling,
which we recently have. This may continue for the next week or two, but with
more and more compelling speculations making themselves known in this arena,
I’m personally hoping to go shopping (if I can bring myself to step over so much
carnage—some of which I and many so-called experts assisted unwillingly in
creating).


Click Here For The Entire Report

Why the OSC so rarely gets its man

Why the OSC so rarely gets its man
LUCAS OLENIUK/TORONTO STAR FILE PHOTO
The Ontario Securities Commission in Toronto is seen in this file photo.

The scandals

BRE-X

Issue: The company’s gold find was exposed as a fraud in 1997. Shares became worthless.

Action:
The OSC charged Bre-X head geologist John Felderhof with insider trading. Outcome: After a seven-year trial, an Ontario court judge in July acquitted Felderhof on all counts, saying there were no red flags to suggest fraud. No other Bre-X officials were charged.

LIVENT

Issue: Theatre production company Livent Inc. collapses in 1998 and its shares become worthless.

Action: U.S. prosecutors file fraud charges against Livent co-founder Garth Drabinsky and others in 1998, but Drabinsky avoids the charges by staying in Canada. Four years later Canadian charges are filed.

Outcome: A trial is expected next year, a decade after Livent fell apart. Meanwhile, charges against another Livent executive were stayed this year because of delays in the case.

ANDREW RANKIN

Issue: Royal Bank in 2001 fires investment banker Andrew Rankin over suspicious trading.

Action:
OSC charges Rankin in 2004 with providing inside information allowing millions in trading profits by friend Daniel Duic, who co-operated in exchange for immunity.

Outcome: Rankin is convicted in 2005 and sentenced to six months, but never served the sentence. An Ontario judge overturned the conviction, noting inconsistencies in Duic’s testimony. The OSC is pursuing a retrial of Rankin in February.

NORTEL

Issue: An independent probe by a U.S. law firm concludes in 2005 that top Nortel officials manipulated accounting to meet profit targets and trigger bonuses.

Action: Both the OSC and SEC investigate accounting issues.

Outcome: Nortel agrees to pay the SEC $35 million (U.S.) to settle fraud charges while the OSC agrees to settle with Nortel for just $1 million to cover costs. Cases against several Nortel executives are ongoing.

HOLLINGER

Issue: Investors in newspaper publisher Hollinger International Inc. complain that top executives, including Conrad Black, siphoned off millions through sham transactions.

Action: The SEC and OSC launch investigations into Hollinger, while U.S. prosecutors file criminal charges.

Outcome: A Chicago court in July found Black guilty of obstruction of justice and fraud. Sentencing is slated for Dec. 10.


The investors

James Markis


Bolton computer consultant says he lost $104,000 in the Nortel collapse. He is expecting a settlement early next year after the company agreed to pay $2.4 billion in cash and shares to settle a class-action lawsuit. Nortel also agreed to pay a $1 million fine to the OSC and $35 million to the SEC to settle allegations of wrongdoing. Markis, 53, feels that, in both cases, Nortel paid only “minimum” fines.

“Who’s going to have faith in the equities markets when the regulators give them a slap on the wrist?”
Markis asked. “I think the OSC should have set a precedent to say Canadian equities markets are safe and the watchdogs are doing their job.”

Chris Morgis

The Toronto real estate developer lost $2 million due to unauthorized trading by now-defunct brokerage Thomson Kernaghan & Co. Morgis, 42, sued the adviser and Thomson Kernaghan. Morgis filed complaints with the Investment Dealers Association in March, 2001. The agency did not respond for more than a year. The brokerage went bankrupt in 2002. Its former chair, Mark Valentine, was later found guilty of securities fraud in the United States. Morgis tried to sue the IDA, but a court declared it has statutory immunity. Dealing with Canadian regulators, Morgis said, “was such a disappointing process. There was smoke there, and there was a fire, but the IDA didn’t go in.”

Osamu Shimizu

The Etobicoke retiree, who lost $7,800 when his shares of Bre-X collapsed, joined a class-action lawsuit against Bre-X, John Felderhof, and other former Bre-X executives. The lawsuit is pending, though it has been dealt a serious blow by an Ontario court ruling last summer that acquitted Felderhof, Bre-X’s former chief geologist, of insider trading charges. Shimizu, 80, feels regulators should have taken a closer look at the mining company’s early claims that it had discovered the world’s biggest gold deposit at its Busang
property in Indonesia.

“The OSC is a toothless tiger,” Shimizu said. “They make all kinds of noise — but no teeth.”

THE SERIES

TODAY: How regulators have failed to crack down on stock- market miscreants while developing an international reputation for inaction and ineffectiveness.

TOMORROW: Why a big-budget police squad set up to take on corporate crime degenerated into a bureaucratic mess with few results.

MONDAY: An interview with the head of securities watchdog, Ontario Securities Commission chairman David Wilson.

COMING UP: What's needed to fix the mess?

More than 450 employees work at the Ontario Securities Commission. About 40% are paid more than $100,000 a year. Their dismal track record begs the question: What on earth are they doing?
December 01, 2007

Business Reporter

Bruce McLaughlin took millions of dollars from the company he led to pay off personal debts. That was the conclusion of a court-appointed accounting firm that looked into suspicious transactions at Mississauga property developer Mascan Corp.

The findings of the audit pressured the Ontario Securities Commission to take legal action on behalf of Mascan’s minority shareholders.

That was 23 years ago.

The case is still on the OSC’s books, listed on the commission’s website under “Current Proceedings.”

The OSC says it can’t comment because it’s a “live matter” before the courts.

“Most of the former plaintiffs have died or lost interest,” says Edward Waitzer, the lawyer who first pursued McLaughlin back in 1982 — at the time representing the Thomson family’s Woodbridge Co. Ltd. — until a reluctant OSC waded into the case. The RCMP wanted no part of it, he says.

Waitzer eventually became OSC chair between 1993 and 1996 and even he couldn’t get the case moving.

“It’s an example of how things get initiated and never get completed, and nobody holds the OSC to account,” he says.

The OSC is Ontario’s investment watchdog. It has ultimate authority over the Toronto Stock Exchange, pension funds, mutual funds and investment dealers. Across Canada, everyone from the tiniest investor to online day traders and retirees on a company pension is affected by transactions — right or wrong — under its jurisdiction.

It’s accountable by definition. But academics, lawyers and forensic accountants interviewed for this story say accountability is sorely lacking when it comes to securities enforcement, whether it’s regulatory matters overseen by the OSC or violations of criminal law overseen by police.

They also cite a lack of focus, and the sense of urgency that makes enforcement an effective deterrent to breaking the rules. The decades-old Mascan case, they say, illustrates much of what’s wrong with the system.

More recently, many believe the OSC and Canadian authorities dropped the ball on their investigation of Conrad Black, who will be sentenced later this month in Chicago after a speedy U.S. trial.

“For me, the hardest part about the Conrad Black trial has been explaining why it happened in Chicago and not in Toronto,” former Ontario premier Bob Rae wrote recently in his blog.

All this is no surprise to Utpal Bhattacharya, a finance professor at the Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business and author of a report comparing the enforcement records of the OSC and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). “We found the enforcement in Ontario was pathetic,” said Bhattacharya. “Canada is a first-world country with second-world capital markets and third-world enforcement.”

Many high-profile cases of stock-market meltdown or corporate fraud in recent years have left investors fuming that authorities have either failed to hold people accountable or taken way too long to apply justice.

“I think delay is a big source of frustration for investors,” said Poonam Puri, a law professor who teaches about white-collar crime at Osgoode Hall Law School.

This year, for example, many Canadians were frustrated that, after a decade of investigation and courtroom battles over Bre-X Minerals, nobody was held accountable for the world-infamous multi-billion-dollar gold fraud. Many other cases have left Canadians scratching their heads, such as the 1990s meltdown of theatre-producer Livent Inc., the accounting fiasco of Nortel Networks, or the OSC’s failure to pin stock-tipping charges on investment banker Andrew Rankin.

Critics say the OSC showed its light touch in the YBM Magnex stock-market scandal a few years ago. Despite FBI investigations linking YBM Magnex to the Russian Mob, the OSC in 2003 ruled “this case isn’t about organized crime,” and set light fines and penalties against a few company directors.

And investor advocates were shocked when in 2002 the holding company of Michael Cowpland, founder and then CEO of Corel Corp., was fined only $1 million to settle allegations that he sold $20.4 million worth of Corel stock in advance of bad earnings news that caused the company’s share price to drop 40 per cent.

The RCMP says the scope of fraudulent activity across Canada is unknown because there’s no “systematic” collection of data. But for certain crimes — such as insider trading — there’s plenty of reason for worry.

According to a Bloomberg News study prepared by Port Hope-based Measuredmarkets Inc., 33 of 52 large Canadian mergers last year showed signs of aberrant trading just before the mergers were publicly announced. That’s a rate of 63 per cent. A comparative study in the U.S. found a rate of 41 per cent.

The findings don’t prove illegal insider trading is widespread, says Measuredmarkets’ Christopher Thomas, but “it raises a red flag.”

And there are enough of these red flags to spark a growing call for change, increasingly from high-profile voices. Claude Lamoureux, just-retired chief executive officer of the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan — one of the biggest in Canada — accused regulators last month of “pretending to oversee” securities rules and lambasted authorities for their light-handed treatment of white-collar crime.

Barbara Stymiest, chief operating officer at Royal Bank of Canada and former CEO of the Toronto Stock Exchange, called Canada’s securities enforcement an “international embarrassment.”

So what’s the problem?

Industry watchers point fingers everywhere:

* Lax regulations and laws

* A leadership vacuum

* A defeatist culture

* A system short on accountability and focus

* Fragmentation among provincial and territorial regulators. More than 30 separate agencies — many of them self-regulating — are involved in Canadian securities regulation.

“This could charitably be called the Canadian enforcement mosaic,” OSC chair David Wilson told a gathering this month.

* A revolving door of investigators and prosecutors, causing delays and gaps in case knowledge.

* An overarching perception among lawyers, judges and politicians that white-collar offences are victimless crimes, lacking the blood, violence and abuse that captures headlines.

It’s a long list, but south of the border there are fewer excuses and more action. Adjusted to reflect the market size in each jurisdiction, the Indiana University report revealed that between 1995 and 2005, the SEC prosecuted 10 times more cases and, in the specific area of insider trading violations, 20 times more cases than the OSC.

As for financial penalties, “the SEC fines for insider trading per case are about 17 times more than the OSC fines,” concluded the study, prepared last year for the Task Force To Modernize Securities Regulation in Canada.

Surprisingly, the SEC doesn’t appear to have a leg up when it comes to resources, according to Howell Jackson, a professor who teaches securities regulation at Harvard Law School. In a recent comparison of Canadian and U.S. regulatory activity, he found a well-funded Canadian system.

“Adjusted for most measures of economic scale — population, GDP, or market capitalization — Canadian budgets and staffing may actually be somewhat more intensive than those in the United States,” discovered Howell. “Indeed, by international levels, total Canadian staffing and budgets seems to be on the high end.”

Both the Ontario Securities Commission and the RCMP have seen their budgets increased in recent years. The OSC staffing budget jumped 28 per cent in three years, to $51.51 million in fiscal 2007 from $40.15 million in fiscal 2004. About 40 per cent of the regulator’s 464 employees make over $100,000, including $524,065 paid to the chair, Wilson.

Meanwhile, the RCMP launched its highly touted Integrated Market Enforcement Team in 2003, backed by $120 million in new federal support. But so far it has been mostly tough talk and little action, a criticism IMET director John Sliter called “well founded” in an interview with the Star.

The OSC, however, is not so willing to accept the blame. Commission vice-chair Lawrence Ritchie points out that regulatory enforcement ends once the evidence gathered by investigators is put before the court.

“What the court does with it, any regulator has absolutely no control over how a judge or jury will treat that,” he says. “I’m not saying the focus or criticism should be laid elsewhere, but it should be seen within the proper context.”

Others say the blame also lies with police. They emphasize the often forgotten distinction between breaches of regulation and violations of the Criminal Code. Douglas Hyndman, chair of the B.C. Securities Commission, says regulators are criticized for weak enforcement of cases that criminal authorities should be pursuing, but don’t.

“I just don’t think our criminal investigation authorities strike fear into the hearts of crooks in the industry,” Hyndman says. They point out that most of the high-profile U.S. cases — WorldCom, Enron, Adelphia — were the result of criminal, not regulatory, enforcement. Like in the U.S., regulators in Canada can refer serious cases of securities fraud to criminal authorities — the RCMP’s commercial crimes unit or IMET — but there’s no guarantee they’ll be taken on.

The Investment Dealers Association and the Mutual Fund Dealers Association, two self-regulatory bodies accountable to the OSC in Ontario that can refer cases to IMET, have identified at least 84 cases of suspected fraud, forgery or misappropriation of funds to police, according to an association spokesperson.

It’s unclear how many of these cases have been investigated, as IMET resists disclosing names of those being probed until charges have been formally laid.

Cases not pursued by criminal authorities can easily slip through the cracks, though in some cases wrongdoers will get a regulatory wrist slap for criminal offences more deserving of jail time.

Hyndman says regulators shouldn’t be forced to use their own limited resources to prosecute allegations that are clearly criminal in nature.

In the case of Bre-X’s John Felderhof, accused of insider trading, many felt the RCMP should have laid fraud charges and pursued a federal conviction. Instead, the OSC was forced to go after Felderhof with weaker quasi-criminal charges of insider trading in an Ontario provincial court, a forum typically reserved for cases like drunk driving and breaking and entering.

The case dragged on for years, arguably diverting the OSC’s resources away from its core duties of enforcing regulation. But investor advocates like Ken Kivenko argue nothing justifies the kind of delay both accused individuals and shareholders have faced over the years, whether it’s two decades in the case of Bruce McLaughlin, six years after signs of crooked accounting appeared at Nortel, or 10 years for the Bre-X case to conclude.

“The whole system is not set up to protect investors,” says Kivenko, a former aerospace executive who wants to see major securities reforms. “If you did a cost-benefit economic model, Canada would be the place to go for white-collar crime. Your chance of detection is small and the consequences for getting caught are not high.”

Ontario’s new attorney general, Chris Bentley, says a lot has been done over the past few years to improve enforcement of securities crimes, including a doubling of OSC enforcement staff and new offences in the Criminal Code, but he acknowledges more must be done.

“There’s no stepping back. No taking a rest. We continue to push on this front, take it very seriously, and I’ll continue to look for ways to strengthen investigation and prosecutorial capacity,” says Bentley. “The best way to protect those who use securities markets is by action, not words ..... By all means, judge me by my actions.”

Waitzer, benefiting from 30 years of hindsight, has little sympathy for any more excuses. “The regulators are becoming like the people they’re trying to regulate,” he says. “They’re spending their time managing reputations instead of getting results. There’s not a lot of accountability. They can talk a big game, and the fact is they don’t deliver.”


OSC's mandate: protect investors

The Ontario Securities Commission's job is to protect investors from practices considered unfair, improper or fraudulent under the Securities Act.

It regulates investment advisers and companies that trade in securities. It has oversight over the Toronto Stock Exchange and a number of self-regulatory organizations composed of mutual fund and investment dealers.

Why it matters


Securities crimes affect most Canadians. If you've bought shares in a publicly traded company, either directly or indirectly through holdings in mutual funds and pension funds, any fraud hurting that company's performance or affecting its share value can leave the honest investor holding the bag.

Insider trading, stock manipulation, accounting fraud and the illegal sale of shares are among the crimes that regulators and law-enforcement agencies track. For certain crimes, white-collar crooks prey more often on seniors and other vulnerable members of society.

In one way or another, widespread securities fraud left unchecked can lead to a breakdown in market confidence, discouraging investment in the Canadian economy that might otherwise lead to job creation.

Outside our borders, international investors are known to apply a "Canadian discount" on equities here to account for lax enforcement. Indeed, in many financial circles, Canada is considered an "enforcement-free zone" where people don't just get away with white-collar crime, they profit dearly from it.



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